luckadjusted

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Dolphins at Seahawks, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Dolphins 24–3, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 7.3 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:41 left): J. Sanders missed 57-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Miami Dolphins 3
Seattle Seahawks 24

September 22, 2024 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −4

Luck index +42 Seahawks lucky · −42 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 4, Seahawks win 6.

  1. 1 MIA 28 SEA 6
  2. 2 MIA 24 SEA 12
  3. 3 MIA 23 SEA 17
  4. 4 MIA 13 SEA 10
  5. 5 MIA 7 SEA 10
  6. 6 MIA 25 SEA 31
  7. 7 MIA 13 SEA 23
  8. 8 MIA 20 SEA 32
  9. 9 MIA 3 SEA 20
  10. 10 MIA 3 SEA 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 42% of them, Seahawks 58%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+9.8%
Dolphins by 9–1613.3%
Dolphins by 1–818.3%
Level after regulation2.1%
Seahawks by 1–823.8%
Seahawks by 9–1617.0%
Seahawks by 17+15.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 11.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Sanders, 57 yds missed · 61% expected
  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Myers, 53 yds missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:54 J. Myers made 56-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 34 of 47 from 45+ before +5% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:22 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% SEA MIA: Missed field goal
3 Q1 8:41 J. Sanders missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 51 of 74 from 45+ before +13% SEA MIA: Punt
4 Q1 2:53 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 23 flags in 4819 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +4% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q1 2:28 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% MIA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:23 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% SEA MIA: Field goal
7 Q1 0:15 J. Sanders made 23-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +6% MIA MIA: Punt
8 Q3 0:46 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% MIA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kenneth Walker III (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jerome Baker (SEA LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out (IR), replaced by s.thompson · 8.3 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Seahawks 100%

Final margin
Seahawks by 21
Luck in points
9.9 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 11.1
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 42% · Seahawks 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Dolphins · Seahawks

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