luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2024 · September 22, 2024

Dolphins at Seahawks, Week 3 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Dolphins 24–3, but the replays lean toward the Dolphins: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:41 left): J. Sanders missed a 57-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Miami Dolphins 3
Seattle Seahawks 24

September 22, 2024 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −4

Luck index +64 Seahawks very lucky · −64 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 6, Seahawks win 4.

  1. 1 MIA 34 SEA 10
  2. 2 MIA 24 SEA 6
  3. 3 MIA 29 SEA 15
  4. 4 MIA 33 SEA 23
  5. 5 MIA 19 SEA 13
  6. 6 MIA 17 SEA 14
  7. 7 MIA 10 SEA 13
  8. 8 MIA 9 SEA 16
  9. 9 MIA 15 SEA 29
  10. 10 MIA 6 SEA 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 64% of them, Seahawks 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+19.8%
Dolphins by 9–1618.4%
Dolphins by 1–824.4%
Level after regulation1.6%
Seahawks by 1–816.8%
Seahawks by 9–1611.6%
Seahawks by 17+7.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.2 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 21, without the luck Seahawks by 10.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 56 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Sanders, 57 yds missed · 64% expected
  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Myers, 53 yds missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 11 for 85 yards, Seahawks 11 for 92 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:38 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 10 yards +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q1 6:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 15 yards +3% MIA +1.6 pts
Q1 2:53 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 4 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIA +1.0 pts
Q1 2:21 Illegal Motion on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.8 pts
Q1 0:11 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q2 13:44 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins (Anthony Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q2 10:53 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIA +1.7 pts
Q2 3:07 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 2:56 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.5 pts
Q2 2:46 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Duke Riley), 15 yards +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q2 2:24 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q2 1:09 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.1 pts
Q2 0:08 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards 0% SEA 0.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q3 7:59 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards +1% MIA +0.8 pts
Q3 7:24 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.3 pts
Q3 6:32 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% SEA +1.2 pts
Q3 0:54 Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 11 yards +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q3 0:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 13 yards +2% MIA +1.3 pts
Q4 10:00 Face Mask on the Dolphins (Kader Kohou), 15 yards +2% SEA +1.8 pts
Q4 9:02 False Start on the Seahawks, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 4:11 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins (Jonnu Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.7 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:54 J. Myers made a 56-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 34 of 47 from 45+ before +5% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:41 J. Sanders missed a 57-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 51 of 74 from 45+ before +13% SEA MIA: Punt
3 Q1 6:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1028 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +3% MIA MIA: Punt
4 Q1 2:53 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 23 flags in 4819 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +4% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q1 0:23 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% SEA MIA: Field goal
6 Q2 6:29 T. Hill dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 292 catchable balls before this +3% SEA MIA: Punt
7 Q3 6:32 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 560 snaps before, position avg 1 per 280 +3% SEA SEA: Turnover
8 Q4 10:26 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +3% SEA MIA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kenneth Walker III (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jerome Baker (SEA LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out (IR), replaced by s.thompson · 8.3 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Seahawks 100%

Final margin
Seahawks by 21
Luck in points
10.2 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 64% · Seahawks 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2024 games · Dolphins · Seahawks

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