2024 season · final
Miami Dolphins, 2024: game by game
The Dolphins went 8–9 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.8 wins. Luck added 1.2: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.
Every game
How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Jaguars | W 20–17 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 2 | vs Bills | L 10–31 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 3 | @ Seahawks | L 3–24 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 4 | vs Titans | L 12–31 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 5 | @ Patriots | W 15–10 | 16% | +84 |
| Week 7 | @ Colts | L 10–16 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 8 | vs Cardinals | L 27–28 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 9 | @ Bills | L 27–30 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 10 | @ Rams | W 23–15 | 28% | +72 |
| Week 11 | vs Raiders | W 34–19 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 12 | vs Patriots | W 34–15 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 13 | @ Packers | L 17–30 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 14 | vs Jets | W 32–26 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 15 | @ Texans | L 12–20 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 16 | vs 49ers | W 29–17 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 17 | @ Browns | W 20–3 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 18 | @ Jets | L 20–32 | 1% | −1 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Drops | +0.24 | +10.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.03 | −2.5 |
| Rest | −0.02 | −0.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.04 | −3.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.13 | +3.3 |
| Kicks | −0.32 | +9.7 |
| Injuries | −0.79 | −27.7 |