2024 season · final
Miami Dolphins, 2024: game by game
The Dolphins went 8–9 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.7 wins. Luck added 1.3: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.
Every game
How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Jaguars | W 20–17 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 2 | vs Bills | L 10–31 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 3 | @ Seahawks | L 3–24 | 42% | −42 |
| Week 4 | vs Titans | L 12–31 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 5 | @ Patriots | W 15–10 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 7 | @ Colts | L 10–16 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 8 | vs Cardinals | L 27–28 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 9 | @ Bills | L 27–30 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 10 | @ Rams | W 23–15 | 28% | +72 |
| Week 11 | vs Raiders | W 34–19 | 58% | +42 |
| Week 12 | vs Patriots | W 34–15 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 13 | @ Packers | L 17–30 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 14 | vs Jets | W 32–26 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 15 | @ Texans | L 12–20 | 29% | −29 |
| Week 16 | vs 49ers | W 29–17 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 17 | @ Browns | W 20–3 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 18 | @ Jets | L 20–32 | 1% | −1 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +9.8 | +0.58 |
| Drops | +7.9 | +0.46 |
| Fumble bounces | +3.1 | +0.19 |
| Rest | −0.8 | −0.05 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −1.7 | −0.10 |
| Judgment calls | −5.8 | −0.34 |
| Injuries | −36.8 | −2.17 |