luckadjusted

Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024

Dolphins at Browns, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Browns 20–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 9 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 7.7 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:40 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 13 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 20
Cleveland Browns 3

December 29, 2024 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −3

Luck index +12 Dolphins about even · −12 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 9, Browns win 1.

  1. 1 MIA 45 CLE 13
  2. 2 MIA 30 CLE 6
  3. 3 MIA 26 CLE 6
  4. 4 MIA 23 CLE 6
  5. 5 MIA 20 CLE 6
  6. 6 MIA 18 CLE 7
  7. 7 MIA 21 CLE 14
  8. 8 MIA 21 CLE 16
  9. 9 MIA 17 CLE 15
  10. 10 MIA 6 CLE 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 88% of them, Browns 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+47.0%
Dolphins by 9–1622.4%
Dolphins by 1–818.4%
Level after regulation1.9%
Browns by 1–87.3%
Browns by 9–162.5%
Browns by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 18.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 54 yds made · 61% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Sanders, 39 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:04 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% CLE CLE: Field goal
2 Q1 1:09 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q2 0:45 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% MIA CLE: Punt
4 Q2 0:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 19 flags in 2575 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +18% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q3 14:21 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedJ. Jeudy dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 223 catchable balls before this +7% MIA CLE: Punt
6 Q3 11:51 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q3 8:54 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +7% CLE MIA: Punt
8 Q4 14:14 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% MIA CLE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jameis Winston (CLE QB), out, replaced by d.thompson-robinson · 0.6 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Newsome II (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shelby Harris (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 8.2 pts
  • Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Kendall Fuller (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Anthony Walker (MIA LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 92% · Browns 8%

Final margin
Dolphins by 17
Luck in points
1.1 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 18.1
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 88% · Browns 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Dolphins · Browns

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