luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2024 · December 26, 2024

Seahawks at Bears, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Bears 6–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): the Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 30 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 6
Chicago Bears 3

December 26, 2024 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3.5

Luck index +16 Seahawks about even · −16 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Bears win 2.

  1. 1 SEA 34 CHI 7
  2. 2 SEA 23 CHI 3
  3. 3 SEA 18 CHI 3
  4. 4 SEA 23 CHI 10
  5. 5 SEA 10 CHI 0
  6. 6 SEA 10 CHI 3
  7. 7 SEA 15 CHI 10
  8. 8 SEA 13 CHI 10
  9. 9 SEA 10 CHI 13
  10. 10 SEA 3 CHI 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 84% of them, Bears 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+34.3%
Seahawks by 9–1623.7%
Seahawks by 1–825.3%
Level after regulation1.1%
Bears by 1–810.6%
Bears by 9–164.1%
Bears by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 3, without the luck Seahawks by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Santos, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Myers, 50 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 3 for 25 yards, Bears 4 for 23 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 10:19 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 4 yards +4% SEA +1.1 pts
Q2 7:54 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.5 pts
Q2 3:27 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +17% SEA +4.5 pts
Q2 2:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards +4% CHI +0.9 pts
Q3 3:04 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CHI +1.0 pts
Q4 8:13 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bears (Jonathan Ford), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.6 pts
Q4 2:14 False Start on the Bears, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.4 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:51 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% CHI CHI: Field goal
2 Q2 3:27 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% SEA SEA: Field goal
3 Q3 3:46 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% SEA SEA: Turnover
4 Q4 2:14 The Bears converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedFalse Start on the Bears, 4 yardsPre-snap flags +14% CHI CHI: Turnover
5 Q4 2:05 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% CHI CHI: Turnover
6 Q4 1:15 The Bears converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +18% CHI CHI: Turnover
7 Q4 0:26 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% SEA CHI: Turnover
8 Q4 0:20 The Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +30% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Braxton Jones (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CHI T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ryan Bates (CHI C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Elijah Hicks (CHI FS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kenneth Walker III (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 58% · Bears 42%

Final margin
Seahawks by 3
Luck in points
2.6 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 84% · Bears 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Seahawks · Bears

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