luckadjusted

Week 17 2024 · December 29, 2024

Cowboys at Eagles, Week 17 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 41–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.1 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:55 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 55 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 7
Philadelphia Eagles 41

December 29, 2024 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −7.5

Luck index +5 Eagles about even · −5 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 DAL 14 PHI 9
  2. 2 DAL 17 PHI 20
  3. 3 DAL 26 PHI 32
  4. 4 DAL 27 PHI 37
  5. 5 DAL 19 PHI 31
  6. 6 DAL 7 PHI 22
  7. 7 DAL 10 PHI 27
  8. 8 DAL 13 PHI 33
  9. 9 DAL 5 PHI 30
  10. 10 DAL 7 PHI 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 5% of them, Eagles 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+0.4%
Cowboys by 9–160.9%
Cowboys by 1–83.9%
Level after regulation1.4%
Eagles by 1–815.1%
Eagles by 9–1621.2%
Eagles by 17+57.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 34. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 25.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 61 yds missed · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:55 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +55% PHI DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:28 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:47 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Nolan Smith), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1034 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:15 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Andrew Booth), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 523 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:45 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:44 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:38 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% PHI DAL: Turnover
8 Q2 0:50 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% PHI DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Hurts (PHI QB), out, replaced by k.pickett · 5.0 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 0% · Eagles 100%

Final margin
Eagles by 34
Luck in points
8.2 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 25.8
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 5% · Eagles 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2024 games · Cowboys · Eagles

More from Week 17 2024