luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 season · final

Philadelphia Eagles, 2024: game by game

The Eagles went 14–3 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.3 wins. Luck added 1.7: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–2.

Playoffs: 4–0, replay wins 3.4.

Every game

How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Packers W 34–29 24% +76
Week 2 vs Falcons L 21–22 67% −67
Week 3 @ Saints W 15–12 93% +7
Week 4 @ Buccaneers L 16–33 6% −6
Week 6 vs Browns W 20–16 98% +2
Week 7 @ Giants W 28–3 100% 0
Week 8 @ Bengals W 37–17 93% +7
Week 9 vs Jaguars W 28–23 62% +38
Week 10 @ Cowboys W 34–6 99% +1
Week 11 vs Commanders W 26–18 56% +44
Week 12 @ Rams W 37–20 94% +6
Week 13 @ Ravens W 24–19 53% +47
Week 14 vs Panthers W 22–16 79% +21
Week 15 vs Steelers W 27–13 78% +22
Week 16 @ Commanders L 33–36 45% −45
Week 17 vs Cowboys W 41–7 98% +2
Week 18 vs Giants W 20–13 83% +17
Wild Card vs Packers W 22–10 93% +7
Divisional round vs Rams W 28–22 71% +29
NFC Championship vs Commanders W 55–23 96% +4
Super Bowl vs Chiefs W 40–22 85% +15

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs+0.65+4.5
Drops+0.42+14.5
Rest+0.06+2.4
Fumble bounces−0.14−1.5
Injuries−0.33−10.7
Kicks−0.59+1.0