luckadjusted

Divisional round 2024 · January 19, 2025

Rams at Eagles, Divisional round 2024: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Rams 28–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:31 left): the Rams were stopped on 4th & 11, worth 17 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 22
Philadelphia Eagles 28

January 19, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −7

Luck index +31 Eagles lucky · −31 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 3, Eagles win 7.

  1. 1 LA 27 PHI 10
  2. 2 LA 26 PHI 18
  3. 3 LA 20 PHI 17
  4. 4 LA 21 PHI 23
  5. 5 LA 17 PHI 21
  6. 6 LA 20 PHI 27
  7. 7 LA 13 PHI 24
  8. 8 LA 23 PHI 38
  9. 9 LA 15 PHI 35
  10. 10 LA 16 PHI 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 31% of them, Eagles 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+5.7%
Rams by 9–168.7%
Rams by 1–814.4%
Level after regulation3.6%
Eagles by 1–822.7%
Eagles by 9–1620.0%
Eagles by 17+24.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 1.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Karty, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Karty, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 78% expected
  • J. Elliott, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Elliott, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:17 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +15% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:16 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +14% LA LA: Field goal
3 Q3 6:21 The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +11% PHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q3 4:26 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% LA LA: Punt
5 Q4 15:00 The Rams fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% PHI LA: Turnover
6 Q4 11:10 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% PHI LA: Punt
7 Q4 1:14 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +16% PHI LA: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:31 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +17% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 41% · Eagles 59%

Final margin
Eagles by 6
Luck in points
4.5 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Rams 31% · Eagles 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2024 games · Rams · Eagles

More from Divisional round 2024