Divisional round 2024 · January 19, 2025
Rams at Eagles, Divisional round 2024: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Rams 28–22, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:14 left): the Rams were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 15 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 22 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 Eagles lucky · −29 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 3, Eagles win 7.
- 1 LA 27 PHI 9
- 2 LA 46 PHI 38
- 3 LA 23 PHI 20
- 4 LA 24 PHI 27
- 5 LA 24 PHI 30
- 6 LA 7 PHI 17
- 7 LA 17 PHI 30
- 8 LA 11 PHI 27
- 9 LA 10 PHI 29
- 10 LA 6 PHI 35
Your call
Did the Eagles earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 29% of them, Eagles 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 5.3% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 8.6% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 14.0% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 26.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Karty, 30 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Karty, 34 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Elliott, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Elliott, 37 yds made · 90% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Rams 3 for 30 yards, Eagles 3 for 14 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:41 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Ahkello Witherspoon), 15 yards | +2% PHI +1.1 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +2% PHI +1.1 pts |
| Q2 4:38 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:26 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +11% LA +2.6 pts |
| Q4 13:26 | False Start on the Eagles, 4 yards · pre-snap | +5% LA +1.7 pts |
| Q4 1:19 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PHI +0.7 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 9:52 | The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 4:26 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% LA | LA: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 15:00 | The Rams fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +14% PHI | LA: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 11:59 | The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% LA | LA: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 8:55 | The Eagles converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +8% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 2:00 | The Rams got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +11% LA | LA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 1:14 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +15% PHI | LA: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:31 | The Rams were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +12% PHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Nakobe Dean (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 47% · Eagles 53%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 6
- Luck in points
- 5.6 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 29% · Eagles 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2024 games · 
Rams · 
Eagles
More from Divisional round 2024
- Texans at Chiefs KC 23–14 · replay 46% for the winner
- Commanders at Lions WAS 45–31 · replay 77% for the winner
- Ravens at Bills BUF 27–25 · replay 66% for the winner