luckadjusted

Divisional round 2024 · January 18, 2025

Commanders at Lions, Divisional round 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Lions 45–31, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.1 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Lions were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:38 left): Return touchdown by the Commanders, worth 22 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 45
Detroit Lions 31

January 18, 2025 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −8.5

Luck index +46 Commanders lucky · −46 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 5, Lions win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 60 DET 37
  2. 2 WAS 30 DET 16
  3. 3 WAS 43 DET 34
  4. 4 WAS 35 DET 31
  5. 5 WAS 40 DET 38
  6. 6 WAS 29 DET 31
  7. 7 WAS 34 DET 40
  8. 8 WAS 24 DET 35
  9. 9 WAS 42 DET 58
  10. 10 WAS 25 DET 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 54% of them, Lions 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+13.2%
Commanders by 9–1614.9%
Commanders by 1–821.5%
Level after regulation4.7%
Lions by 1–820.8%
Lions by 9–1614.1%
Lions by 17+10.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Commanders by 10.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 78% expected
  • J. Bates, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 44 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:42 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +10% DET WAS: Field goal
2 Q1 1:02 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedThe Lions fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% WAS DET: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:13 The Commanders converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:05 The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +10% DET DET: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:38 The Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CommandersSpecial teams +22% WAS DET: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:49 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q3 9:55 The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 5:38 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Josh Paschal), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1386 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kevin Zeitler (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alim McNeill (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Malcolm Rodriguez (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 97% · Lions 3%

Final margin
Commanders by 14
Luck in points
3.4 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 54% · Lions 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2024 games · Commanders · Lions

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