Divisional round 2024 · January 18, 2025
Commanders at Lions, Divisional round 2024: who deserved to win?
The Commanders beat the Lions 45–31, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Lions: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Lions were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:38 left): Return touchdown by the Commanders, worth 21 points of win probability to the Commanders.
Final
 Washington Commanders | 45 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Commanders about even · −23 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Commanders win 8, Lions win 2.
- 1 WAS 51 DET 20
- 2 WAS 58 DET 35
- 3 WAS 34 DET 16
- 4 WAS 34 DET 20
- 5 WAS 38 DET 28
- 6 WAS 38 DET 30
- 7 WAS 32 DET 27
- 8 WAS 26 DET 24
- 9 WAS 24 DET 28
- 10 WAS 20 DET 35
Your call
Did the Commanders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Lions
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
45 points apart for the Lions: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.34 | +0.12 | better by 0.22 |
| Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.57 | +0.10 | worse by 0.47 |
| Lions offenseEPA per play gained | +0.57 | +0.20 | better by 0.37 |
| Lions defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.34 | +0.09 | worse by 0.25 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Commanders win 77% of them, Lions 23%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Commanders by 17+ | 29.6% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 25.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.8% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 6.5% |
| Lions by 17+ | 3.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 78% expected
- J. Bates, 28 yds made · 98% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 44 yds missed · 84% expected
Penalties: Commanders 4 for 25 yards, Lions 5 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Commanders (Zane Gonzalez), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET 0.0 pts |
| Q1 11:10 | False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% DET +1.0 pts |
| Q2 11:44 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Kerby Joseph), 2 yards | +5% WAS +1.7 pts |
| Q2 6:17 | False Start on the Lions (Sam LaPorta), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WAS +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:19 | False Start on the Lions (Jahmyr Gibbs), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:30 | Face Mask on the Commanders (Dante Fowler), 15 yards | +5% DET +1.0 pts |
| Q3 5:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Josh Paschal), 15 yards | +6% WAS +1.8 pts |
| Q4 14:15 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Lions, 3 yards · pre-snap | +5% WAS +3.2 pts |
| Q4 9:50 | Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.7 pts |
Commanders penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:42 | The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +10% DET | WAS: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 1:02 | The Lions fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% WAS | DET: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 13:13 | The Commanders converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:05 | The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +5% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 5:38 | The Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the CommandersSpecial teams | +21% WAS | DET: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:49 | The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 9:55 | The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 5:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Josh Paschal), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1386 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 | +6% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Carlton Davis (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Kevin Zeitler (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
- Alim McNeill (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Malcolm Rodriguez (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Noah Brown (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Commanders 99% · Lions 1%
- Final margin
- Commanders by 14
- Luck in points
- 1.6 for the Commanders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Commanders by 12.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Commanders 77% · Lions 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2024 games · 
Commanders · 
Lions
More from Divisional round 2024
- Texans at Chiefs KC 23–14 · replay 46% for the winner
- Rams at Eagles PHI 28–22 · replay 71% for the winner
- Ravens at Bills BUF 27–25 · replay 66% for the winner