luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 season · final

Washington Commanders, 2024: game by game

The Commanders went 12–5 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.3 wins. Luck cost them 0.3: the 15th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–4.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.1.

Every game

How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Buccaneers L 20–37 29% −29
Week 2 vs Giants W 21–18 89% +11
Week 3 @ Bengals W 38–33 26% +74
Week 4 @ Cardinals W 42–14 90% +10
Week 5 vs Browns W 34–13 99% +1
Week 6 @ Ravens L 23–30 21% −21
Week 7 vs Panthers W 40–7 100% +1
Week 8 vs Bears W 18–15 98% +2
Week 9 @ Giants W 27–22 93% +7
Week 10 vs Steelers L 27–28 95% −95
Week 11 @ Eagles L 18–26 44% −44
Week 12 vs Cowboys L 26–34 66% −66
Week 13 vs Titans W 42–19 100% 0
Week 15 @ Saints W 20–19 64% +36
Week 16 vs Eagles W 36–33 55% +45
Week 17 vs Falcons W 30–24 83% +17
Week 18 @ Cowboys W 23–19 76% +24
Wild Card @ Buccaneers W 23–20 33% +67
Divisional round @ Lions W 45–31 77% +23
NFC Championship @ Eagles L 23–55 4% −4

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.41+4.9
Injuries+0.36+18.2
3rd & 4th downs+0.24+12.2
Fumble bounces+0.05+4.5
Rest−0.03−0.4
Judgment calls−0.43−14.6