luckadjusted

2024 season · final

Washington Commanders, 2024: game by game

The Commanders went 12–5 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.0 wins. Luck cost them 0.0: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–4.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.1.

Every game

How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Buccaneers L 20–37 31% −31
Week 2 vs Giants W 21–18 79% +21
Week 3 @ Bengals W 38–33 18% +82
Week 4 @ Cardinals W 42–14 94% +6
Week 5 vs Browns W 34–13 99% +1
Week 6 @ Ravens L 23–30 25% −25
Week 7 vs Panthers W 40–7 98% +2
Week 8 vs Bears W 18–15 96% +4
Week 9 @ Giants W 27–22 93% +7
Week 10 vs Steelers L 27–28 86% −86
Week 11 @ Eagles L 18–26 62% −62
Week 12 vs Cowboys L 26–34 81% −81
Week 13 vs Titans W 42–19 100% 0
Week 15 @ Saints W 20–19 54% +46
Week 16 vs Eagles W 36–33 58% +42
Week 17 vs Falcons W 30–24 80% +20
Week 18 @ Cowboys W 23–19 49% +51
Wild Card @ Buccaneers W 23–20 47% +53
Divisional round @ Lions W 45–31 54% +46
NFC Championship @ Eagles L 23–55 8% −8

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+24.8+1.46
3rd & 4th downs+14.0+0.82
Drops+12.1+0.71
Kicks+4.6+0.27
Fumble bounces+3.1+0.19
Rest−0.4−0.02
Judgment calls−31.1−1.83