luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024

Commanders at Cardinals, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Cardinals 42–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Cardinals: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 60% favorites.

Final

Washington Commanders 42
Arizona Cardinals 14

September 29, 2024 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −3.5

Luck index +10 Commanders about even · −10 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 9, Cardinals win 1.

  1. 1 WAS 37 ARI 7
  2. 2 WAS 37 ARI 14
  3. 3 WAS 21 ARI 3
  4. 4 WAS 35 ARI 21
  5. 5 WAS 31 ARI 20
  6. 6 WAS 20 ARI 10
  7. 7 WAS 27 ARI 20
  8. 8 WAS 27 ARI 23
  9. 9 WAS 20 ARI 17
  10. 10 WAS 23 ARI 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cardinals

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

41 points apart for the Cardinals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained +0.47 +0.10 better by 0.37
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.21 +0.15 better by 0.36
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained −0.21 +0.06 worse by 0.27
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.47 +0.13 worse by 0.34

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 90% of them, Cardinals 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+47.9%
Commanders by 9–1623.5%
Commanders by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation1.8%
Cardinals by 1–85.8%
Cardinals by 9–162.1%
Cardinals by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.5 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 28, without the luck Commanders by 19.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 45 yds made · 78% expected
  • A. Seibert, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 5 for 49 yards, Cardinals 4 for 82 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q3 14:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 47 yards +5% WAS +2.8 pts
Q3 13:52 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Zach Pascal), 10 yards +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% WAS +2.0 pts
Q3 11:19 Illegal Formation on the Commanders, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 13:32 Taunting on the Commanders (Olamide Zaccheaus), 15 yards +1% ARI +1.4 pts
Q4 11:39 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards 0% ARI +1.4 pts
Q4 9:21 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 7:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals, 15 yards 0% WAS +1.8 pts
Q4 4:33 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Commanders (Jeremy McNichols), 15 yards 0% ARI +1.3 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:26 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +5% WAS ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:57 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +5% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:40 The Commanders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:28 The Commanders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:08 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% WAS ARI: Punt
7 Q2 0:34 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% WAS ARI: Punt
8 Q3 14:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 47 yardsJudgment calls · 24 flags in 4377 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +5% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trey McBride (ARI TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Justin Jones (ARI DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (WAS DE), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 100% · Cardinals 0%

Final margin
Commanders by 28
Luck in points
8.5 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 19.5
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 90% · Cardinals 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Commanders · Cardinals

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