luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2024 · September 29, 2024

Bills at Ravens, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bills 35–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 57% favorites.

Final

Buffalo Bills 10
Baltimore Ravens 35

September 29, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −2.5

Luck index +3 Ravens about even · −3 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 BUF 31 BAL 34
  2. 2 BUF 17 BAL 24
  3. 3 BUF 27 BAL 37
  4. 4 BUF 17 BAL 30
  5. 5 BUF 19 BAL 34
  6. 6 BUF 13 BAL 31
  7. 7 BUF 10 BAL 32
  8. 8 BUF 17 BAL 41
  9. 9 BUF 9 BAL 37
  10. 10 BUF 9 BAL 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 3% of them, Ravens 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+0.1%
Bills by 9–160.5%
Bills by 1–81.9%
Level after regulation0.7%
Ravens by 1–86.7%
Ravens by 9–1615.4%
Ravens by 17+74.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 25, without the luck Ravens by 19.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 50 yds made · 68% expected
  • T. Bass, 48 yds missed · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 4 for 38 yards, Ravens 8 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:16 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% BAL +1.1 pts
Q1 5:28 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +4% BAL +1.6 pts
Q1 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Dawuane Smoot), 15 yards 0% BAL +1.6 pts
Q2 12:00 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 9:38 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +1% BUF +1.4 pts
Q2 2:56 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards 0% BUF +1.2 pts
Q2 1:11 Defensive Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 15:00 Intentional Grounding on the Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 14 yards 0% BUF +1.3 pts
Q3 10:45 False Start on the Ravens (Charlie Kolar), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 6:30 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 15 yards +2% BUF +1.2 pts
Q4 12:16 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Rasul Douglas), 3 yards 0% BAL +0.8 pts
Q4 3:26 Fair Catch Interference on the Ravens (Tylan Wallace), 15 yards 0% BUF +1.2 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:15 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +3% BUF BUF: Punt
2 Q1 11:14 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +4% BAL BUF: Punt
3 Q1 7:53 The Bills converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% BUF BUF: Field goal
4 Q1 5:28 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:38 T. Bass made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 31 of 44 from 45+ before +5% BUF BUF: Punt
6 Q2 7:34 The Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +3% BUF BUF: Punt
7 Q3 9:05 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% BUF BUF: Turnover
8 Q3 3:36 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Vorhees (BAL G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Taron Johnson (BUF CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 25
Luck in points
5.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 19.6
Replay with same day's form
Bills 3% · Ravens 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Bills · Ravens

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