luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2024 · September 26, 2024

Cowboys at Giants, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 20–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:15 left): the Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 25 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 20
New York Giants 15

September 26, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −5.5

Luck index +3 Cowboys about even · −3 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 38 NYG 10
  2. 2 DAL 26 NYG 3
  3. 3 DAL 23 NYG 3
  4. 4 DAL 33 NYG 14
  5. 5 DAL 24 NYG 7
  6. 6 DAL 20 NYG 6
  7. 7 DAL 30 NYG 18
  8. 8 DAL 23 NYG 14
  9. 9 DAL 23 NYG 17
  10. 10 DAL 16 NYG 13

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 97% of them, Giants 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+62.4%
Cowboys by 9–1625.1%
Cowboys by 1–89.0%
Level after regulation0.5%
Giants by 1–82.4%
Giants by 9–160.5%
Giants by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.8 points to the Giants: the final margin was Cowboys by 5, without the luck Cowboys by 14.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 52 yds made · 64% expected
  • G. Joseph, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Joseph, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 60 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Joseph, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 40 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 51 yds missed · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 11 for 89 yards, Giants 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:56 Face Mask on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 15 yards +4% DAL +1.1 pts
Q1 9:03 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys (Jalen Tolbert), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q1 8:07 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jalen Tolbert), 10 yards +5% NYG +1.2 pts
Q1 2:17 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +6% NYG +1.3 pts
Q2 14:55 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Carl Lawson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +15% NYG +3.7 pts
Q2 13:18 Illegal Shift on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 9:25 Taunting on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 15 yards +5% NYG +1.0 pts
Q2 3:52 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 2:13 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards +1% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 1:16 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.2 pts
Q2 0:14 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +4% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 0:14 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.1 pts
Q3 5:20 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +6% NYG +2.1 pts
Q3 2:57 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 9 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYG +1.7 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Chris Manhertz), 10 yards +5% DAL +0.7 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:55 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Carl Lawson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 1988 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +15% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 8:30 The Giants got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +6% NYG NYG: Field goal
3 Q4 13:41 The Giants converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +11% NYG NYG: Field goal
4 Q4 5:32 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 3:34 W. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 116 catchable balls before this +12% DAL NYG: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 3:30 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% DAL NYG: Turnover
7 Q4 0:32 B. Aubrey missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 20 of 20 from 45+ before +17% NYG DAL: End of game
8 Q4 0:15 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +25% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andru Phillips (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Markquese Bell (DAL FS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 99% · Giants 1%

Final margin
Cowboys by 5
Luck in points
9.8 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 14.8
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 97% · Giants 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Cowboys · Giants

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