luckadjusted

Week 4 2024 · September 26, 2024

Cowboys at Giants, Week 4 2024: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 20–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.7 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:15 left): the Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 37 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 20
New York Giants 15

September 26, 2024 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −5.5

Luck index +9 Cowboys about even · −9 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 34 NYG 6
  2. 2 DAL 26 NYG 3
  3. 3 DAL 26 NYG 7
  4. 4 DAL 22 NYG 6
  5. 5 DAL 27 NYG 14
  6. 6 DAL 20 NYG 10
  7. 7 DAL 17 NYG 10
  8. 8 DAL 17 NYG 13
  9. 9 DAL 19 NYG 17
  10. 10 DAL 17 NYG 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 91% of them, Giants 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+41.4%
Cowboys by 9–1628.2%
Cowboys by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation1.4%
Giants by 1–86.7%
Giants by 9–161.7%
Giants by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 16.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 52 yds made · 64% expected
  • G. Joseph, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Joseph, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 60 yds made · 65% expected
  • G. Joseph, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 51 yds missed · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:19 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q2 14:55 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Carl Lawson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 9 flags in 1988 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +15% NYG NYG: Field goal
3 Q3 8:44 G. Joseph made 22-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +9% DAL NYG: Punt
4 Q4 13:41 The Giants converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +12% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q4 5:32 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +8% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 3:34 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedW. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 116 catchable balls before this +14% DAL NYG: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:32 B. Aubrey missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 20 of 20 from 45+ before +17% NYG DAL: End of game
8 Q4 0:15 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +37% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andru Phillips (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Caelen Carson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Markquese Bell (DAL FS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 99% · Giants 1%

Final margin
Cowboys by 5
Luck in points
11.8 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 16.8
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 91% · Giants 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2024 games · Cowboys · Giants

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