luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · September 26, 2024–September 30

Week 4 2024: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Jets 10–9 in a game they win 32% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 4 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Broncos 10–9 @ Jets 29% 32% Lucky
Commanders 42–14 @ Cardinals 40% 90% Deserved
Vikings 31–29 @ Packers 43% 74% Deserved
Colts 27–24 vs Steelers 43% 66% Deserved
Raiders 20–16 vs Browns 43% 76% Deserved
Titans 31–12 @ Dolphins 43% 51% Coin flip
Buccaneers 33–16 vs Eagles 47% 94% Deserved

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Falcons W 26–24 vs Saints 31% +70
2 Broncos W 10–9 @ Jets 32% +68
3 Bears W 24–18 vs Rams 44% +56
4 Titans W 31–12 @ Dolphins 51% +49
5 Colts W 27–24 vs Steelers 66% +34
6 Vikings W 31–29 @ Packers 74% +26
7 Raiders W 20–16 vs Browns 76% +24
8 Bengals W 34–24 @ Panthers 78% +22
9 Texans W 24–20 vs Jaguars 88% +12
10 Lions W 42–29 vs Seahawks 89% +11
11 Commanders W 42–14 @ Cardinals 90% +10
12 Buccaneers W 33–16 vs Eagles 94% +6
13 Chiefs W 17–10 @ Chargers 96% +4
14 Cowboys W 20–15 @ Giants 97% +3
15 Ravens W 35–10 vs Bills 97% +3
16 49ers W 30–13 vs Patriots 99% +1
17 Patriots L 13–30 @ 49ers 1% −1
18 Bills L 10–35 @ Ravens 3% −3
19 Giants L 15–20 vs Cowboys 3% −3
20 Chargers L 10–17 vs Chiefs 4% −4
21 Eagles L 16–33 @ Buccaneers 6% −6
22 Cardinals L 14–42 vs Commanders 10% −10
23 Seahawks L 29–42 @ Lions 11% −11
24 Jaguars L 20–24 @ Texans 12% −12
25 Panthers L 24–34 vs Bengals 22% −22
26 Browns L 16–20 @ Raiders 24% −24
27 Packers L 29–31 vs Vikings 26% −26
28 Steelers L 24–27 @ Colts 34% −34
29 Dolphins L 12–31 vs Titans 49% −49
30 Rams L 18–24 @ Bears 56% −56
31 Jets L 9–10 vs Broncos 68% −68
32 Saints L 24–26 @ Falcons 70% −70