2024 season · final
Kansas City Chiefs, 2024: game by game
The Chiefs went 15–2 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.1 wins. Luck added 2.9: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 11–0.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.5.
Every game
How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Ravens | W 27–20 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 2 | vs Bengals | W 26–25 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 3 | @ Falcons | W 22–17 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 4 | @ Chargers | W 17–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 5 | vs Saints | W 26–13 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 7 | @ 49ers | W 28–18 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 8 | @ Raiders | W 27–20 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 9 | vs Buccaneers | W 30–24 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 10 | vs Broncos | W 16–14 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 11 | @ Bills | L 21–30 | 50% | −50 |
| Week 12 | @ Panthers | W 30–27 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 13 | vs Raiders | W 19–17 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 14 | vs Chargers | W 19–17 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 15 | @ Browns | W 21–7 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 16 | vs Texans | W 27–19 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 17 | @ Steelers | W 29–10 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 18 | @ Broncos | L 0–38 | 2% | −2 |
| Divisional round | vs Texans | W 23–14 | 47% | +53 |
| AFC Championship | vs Bills | W 32–29 | 87% | +13 |
| Super Bowl | @ Eagles | L 22–40 | 16% | −16 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +8.8 | +0.52 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +5.5 | +0.32 |
| Fumble bounces | +3.1 | +0.19 |
| Judgment calls | +0.8 | +0.05 |
| Rest | +0.8 | +0.05 |
| Injuries | −6.0 | −0.35 |
| Drops | −8.0 | −0.47 |