luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 season · final

Kansas City Chiefs, 2024: game by game

The Chiefs went 15–2 in 2024; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.1 wins. Luck added 2.9: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 11–0.

Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.5.

Every game

How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Ravens W 27–20 51% +49
Week 2 vs Bengals W 26–25 60% +40
Week 3 @ Falcons W 22–17 79% +21
Week 4 @ Chargers W 17–10 96% +4
Week 5 vs Saints W 26–13 76% +24
Week 7 @ 49ers W 28–18 71% +29
Week 8 @ Raiders W 27–20 87% +13
Week 9 vs Buccaneers W 30–24 54% +46
Week 10 vs Broncos W 16–14 81% +19
Week 11 @ Bills L 21–30 47% −47
Week 12 @ Panthers W 30–27 95% +5
Week 13 vs Raiders W 19–17 52% +48
Week 14 vs Chargers W 19–17 80% +20
Week 15 @ Browns W 21–7 98% +2
Week 16 vs Texans W 27–19 88% +12
Week 17 @ Steelers W 29–10 90% +10
Week 18 @ Broncos L 0–38 3% −3
Divisional round vs Texans W 23–14 46% +54
AFC Championship vs Bills W 32–29 93% +7
Super Bowl vs Eagles L 22–40 15% −15

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+1.16+10.1
3rd & 4th downs+0.57+2.6
Fumble bounces+0.21+4.6
Rest+0.03+0.8
Judgment calls−0.04+2.3
Injuries−0.06−4.5
Drops−0.10−3.8