luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Broncos at Chiefs, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Broncos 16–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): W. Lutz had a 35-yard field goal blocked, worth 55 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Denver Broncos 14
Kansas City Chiefs 16

November 10, 2024 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −7.5

Luck index +9 Chiefs about even · −9 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 1, Chiefs win 9.

  1. 1 DEN 21 KC 17
  2. 2 DEN 24 KC 27
  3. 3 DEN 2 KC 6
  4. 4 DEN 13 KC 20
  5. 5 DEN 7 KC 16
  6. 6 DEN 6 KC 17
  7. 7 DEN 3 KC 17
  8. 8 DEN 6 KC 23
  9. 9 DEN 7 KC 28
  10. 10 DEN 7 KC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 9% of them, Chiefs 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+0.4%
Broncos by 9–161.9%
Broncos by 1–86.6%
Level after regulation1.3%
Chiefs by 1–820.2%
Chiefs by 9–1627.4%
Chiefs by 17+42.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 9.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • W. Lutz, 60 yds missed · 50% expected
  • H. Butker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • H. Butker, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • W. Lutz, 35 yds blocked · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:45 The Broncos converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +12% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 3:37 Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Brandon Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 3141 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +8% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:47 The Chiefs converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +15% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q3 12:55 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% KC KC: Field goal
5 Q3 8:28 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +15% KC KC: Field goal
6 Q4 10:02 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +17% KC KC: Field goal
7 Q4 1:53 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +16% DEN DEN: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:01 W. Lutz had a 35-yard field goal blockedKicks · 91% expected for him +55% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashee Rice (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jaylen Watson (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Isiah Pacheco (KC RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Singleton (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 97% · Chiefs 3%

Final margin
Chiefs by 2
Luck in points
11.8 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 9.8
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 9% · Chiefs 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Broncos · Chiefs

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