luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Falcons at Saints, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Falcons 20–17, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 11.1 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:43 left): Y. Koo missed 46-yard field goal, worth 24 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 17
New Orleans Saints 20

November 10, 2024 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Falcons −3.5

Luck index +68 Saints very lucky · −68 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 ATL 40 NO 13
  2. 2 ATL 38 NO 17
  3. 3 ATL 36 NO 20
  4. 4 ATL 43 NO 31
  5. 5 ATL 34 NO 26
  6. 6 ATL 24 NO 19
  7. 7 ATL 29 NO 27
  8. 8 ATL 23 NO 26
  9. 9 ATL 20 NO 28
  10. 10 ATL 10 NO 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 68% of them, Saints 32%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+23.1%
Falcons by 9–1619.1%
Falcons by 1–825.0%
Level after regulation3.9%
Saints by 1–816.2%
Saints by 9–167.9%
Saints by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 0.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • Y. Koo, 53 yds missed · 73% expected
  • Y. Koo, 35 yds blocked · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. Grupe, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 46 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:04 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +8% ATL NO: Field goal
2 Q1 3:32 The Saints converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +9% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q2 12:11 Y. Koo missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 51 of 65 from 45+ before +10% NO ATL: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:43 Y. Koo missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him, 51 of 66 from 45+ before +24% NO ATL: Turnover
5 Q4 2:07 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% NO ATL: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 1:48 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedA. Kamara dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 203 catchable balls before this +10% ATL NO: Punt
7 Q4 0:41 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% ATL ATL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:07 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +16% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Olave (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (NO G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 65% · Saints 35%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
3.4 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 68% · Saints 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Falcons · Saints

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