Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024
Falcons at Saints, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Falcons 20–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Saints win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 38 points of win probability to the Saints.
Before kickoff the Falcons were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:43 left): Y. Koo missed a 46-yard field goal, worth 24 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 17 |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +54 Saints lucky · −54 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 5, Saints win 5.
- 1 ATL 31 NO 6
- 2 ATL 26 NO 10
- 3 ATL 43 NO 32
- 4 ATL 34 NO 27
- 5 ATL 34 NO 31
- 6 ATL 27 NO 29
- 7 ATL 21 NO 26
- 8 ATL 16 NO 26
- 9 ATL 27 NO 44
- 10 ATL 20 NO 44
Your call
Did the Saints earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 54% of them, Saints 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 12.8% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 15.2% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Level after regulation | 5.3% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 21.5% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 12.2% |
| Saints by 17+ | 11.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Grupe, 38 yds made · 91% expected
- Y. Koo, 53 yds missed · 73% expected
- Y. Koo, 35 yds blocked · 95% expected
- Y. Koo, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- B. Grupe, 26 yds made · 98% expected
- Y. Koo, 46 yds missed · 84% expected
Penalties: Falcons 6 for 45 yards, Saints 8 for 76 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:02 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (Foster Moreau), 10 yards | +3% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 3:57 | False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.6 pts |
| Q1 1:53 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +2% ATL +1.1 pts |
| Q1 0:42 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Arnold Ebiketie), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NO +0.7 pts |
| Q2 14:43 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 13 yards | +3% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:06 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Ta'Quon Graham), 5 yards | +2% NO +0.9 pts |
| Q3 10:00 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% NO +1.8 pts |
| Q3 8:27 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Khalen Saunders), 6 yards | +2% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:05 | Low Block on the Falcons, 15 yards | +3% NO +1.4 pts |
| Q3 7:31 | False Start on the Falcons (Darnell Mooney), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.3 pts |
| Q4 9:39 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 16 yards | +7% ATL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:27 | False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.3 pts |
| Q4 6:06 | Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Derek Carr), 11 yards | +3% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:46 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Alontae Taylor), 5 yards | +2% ATL +0.3 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Saints’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:04 | The Saints were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +8% ATL | NO: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:32 | The Saints converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 12:11 | Y. Koo missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 51 of 65 from 45+ before | +10% NO | ATL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 6:43 | Y. Koo missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him, 51 of 66 from 45+ before | +24% NO | ATL: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 2:07 | The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +12% NO | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 1:48 | A. Kamara dropped a catchable passDrops · 11 drops on 203 catchable balls before this | +10% ATL | NO: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 0:41 | The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% ATL | ATL: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:07 | The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +16% NO | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Chris Olave (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Rashid Shaheed (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Lucas Patrick (NO G), out · 0.3 pts
- Drew Dalman (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Lorenzo Carter (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 66% · Saints 34%
- Final margin
- Saints by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 54% · Saints 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · 
Falcons · 
Saints
More from Week 10 2024
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 35–34 · replay 78% for the winner
- Giants vs Panthers CAR 20–17 · replay 24% for the winner
- Bills at Colts BUF 30–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 16–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Vikings at Jaguars MIN 12–7 · replay 78% for the winner
- Patriots at Bears NE 19–3 · replay 58% for the winner
- Steelers at Commanders PIT 28–27 · replay 5% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Titans at Chargers LAC 27–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jets at Cardinals ARI 31–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys PHI 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lions at Texans DET 26–23 · replay 56% for the winner
- Dolphins at Rams MIA 23–15 · replay 28% for the winner