luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2024 NFL season · November 7, 2024–November 11

Week 10 2024: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Panthers beat the Giants 20–17 in a game they win 24% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 10 2024 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 20–17 vs Giants 32% 24% Lucky
Patriots 19–3 @ Bears 32% 58% Coin flip
Saints 20–17 vs Falcons 40% 46% Coin flip
Dolphins 23–15 @ Rams 43% 28% Lucky
Cardinals 31–6 vs Jets 44% 90% Deserved
Steelers 28–27 @ Commanders 46% 5% Lucky

Week 10 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 28–27 @ Commanders 5% +95
2 Panthers W 20–17 vs Giants 24% +76
3 Dolphins W 23–15 @ Rams 28% +72
4 Saints W 20–17 vs Falcons 46% +54
5 Lions W 26–23 @ Texans 56% +44
6 Patriots W 19–3 @ Bears 58% +42
7 Vikings W 12–7 @ Jaguars 78% +22
8 Ravens W 35–34 vs Bengals 78% +22
9 Chargers W 27–17 vs Titans 81% +19
10 Chiefs W 16–14 vs Broncos 81% +19
11 49ers W 23–20 @ Buccaneers 86% +14
12 Cardinals W 31–6 vs Jets 90% +10
13 Bills W 30–20 @ Colts 91% +9
14 Eagles W 34–6 @ Cowboys 99% +1
15 Cowboys L 6–34 vs Eagles 1% −1
16 Colts L 20–30 vs Bills 9% −9
17 Jets L 6–31 @ Cardinals 10% −10
18 Buccaneers L 20–23 vs 49ers 14% −14
19 Broncos L 14–16 @ Chiefs 19% −19
20 Titans L 17–27 @ Chargers 19% −19
21 Bengals L 34–35 @ Ravens 22% −22
22 Jaguars L 7–12 vs Vikings 22% −22
23 Bears L 3–19 vs Patriots 42% −42
24 Texans L 23–26 vs Lions 44% −44
25 Falcons L 17–20 @ Saints 54% −54
26 Rams L 15–23 vs Dolphins 72% −72
27 Giants L 17–20 @ Panthers 76% −76
28 Commanders L 27–28 vs Steelers 95% −95