luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 7, 2024

Bengals at Ravens, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 35–34 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9.5 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:44 left): the Ravens converted 3rd & 2, worth 33 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 34
Baltimore Ravens 35

November 7, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6

Luck index +23 Ravens about even · −23 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 CIN 33 BAL 19
  2. 2 CIN 45 BAL 41
  3. 3 CIN 30 BAL 32
  4. 4 CIN 30 BAL 34
  5. 5 CIN 17 BAL 23
  6. 6 CIN 26 BAL 35
  7. 7 CIN 23 BAL 36
  8. 8 CIN 25 BAL 41
  9. 9 CIN 17 BAL 38
  10. 10 CIN 6 BAL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 23% of them, Ravens 77%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+3.6%
Bengals by 9–166.7%
Bengals by 1–811.2%
Level after regulation2.2%
Ravens by 1–825.2%
Ravens by 9–1620.2%
Ravens by 17+30.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 7.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:58 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:01 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +11% BAL CIN: Punt
3 Q4 13:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +33% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 9:29 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +14% BAL CIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:56 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +15% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:37 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:56 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +11% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:38 The Bengals’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +18% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaiah Likely (BAL TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Zack Moss (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 10% · Ravens 90%

Final margin
Ravens by 1
Luck in points
6.2 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 7.2
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 23% · Ravens 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Bengals · Ravens

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