Week 10 2024 · November 7, 2024
Bengals at Ravens, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Bengals 35–34, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:38 left): the Bengals’ two-point try failed, worth 18 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 34 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +22 Ravens about even · −22 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 2, Ravens win 8.
- 1 CIN 34 BAL 22
- 2 CIN 17 BAL 14
- 3 CIN 27 BAL 29
- 4 CIN 21 BAL 24
- 5 CIN 36 BAL 43
- 6 CIN 21 BAL 31
- 7 CIN 17 BAL 30
- 8 CIN 21 BAL 38
- 9 CIN 23 BAL 46
- 10 CIN 10 BAL 41
Your call
Did the Ravens earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 22% of them, Ravens 78%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 3.1% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.7% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 25.4% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 32.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Bengals 3 for 23 yards, Ravens 11 for 81 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:34 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 1 yard | +8% CIN +2.0 pts |
| Q1 7:44 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 13 yards | +6% CIN +2.1 pts |
| Q1 6:21 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% BAL +1.5 pts |
| Q1 2:56 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q1 1:06 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:28 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:09 | Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +3% CIN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 11:08 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards | +3% CIN +1.1 pts |
| Q3 9:08 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Josh Newton), 8 yards | +1% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:29 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CIN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:11 | Face Mask on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 15 yards | +7% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:06 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Broderick Washington Jr.), 12 yards | +6% CIN +1.5 pts |
| Q4 0:54 | Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +8% BAL 0.0 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:58 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +9% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:01 | The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +11% BAL | CIN: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 9:29 | The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +14% BAL | CIN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 5:56 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +10% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 5:37 | The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws | +10% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:29 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:54 | Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 4275 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 | +8% BAL | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:38 | The Bengals’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +18% BAL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Isaiah Likely (BAL TE), out · 0.6 pts
- Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
- Daxton Hill (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Trent Brown (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Zack Moss (CIN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 27% · Ravens 73%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 1
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 2.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 22% · Ravens 78% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · 
Bengals · 
Ravens
More from Week 10 2024
- Giants vs Panthers CAR 20–17 · replay 24% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 20–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Bills at Colts BUF 30–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 16–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Vikings at Jaguars MIN 12–7 · replay 78% for the winner
- Patriots at Bears NE 19–3 · replay 58% for the winner
- Steelers at Commanders PIT 28–27 · replay 5% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Titans at Chargers LAC 27–17 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jets at Cardinals ARI 31–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys PHI 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lions at Texans DET 26–23 · replay 56% for the winner
- Dolphins at Rams MIA 23–15 · replay 28% for the winner