luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Lions at Texans, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Texans 26–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Lions win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.0 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Lions were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): J. Bates made 52-yard field goal, worth 30 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Detroit Lions 26
Houston Texans 23

November 10, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Lions −4.5

Luck index +40 Lions lucky · −40 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 DET 49 HOU 26
  2. 2 DET 43 HOU 26
  3. 3 DET 39 HOU 26
  4. 4 DET 41 HOU 31
  5. 5 DET 19 HOU 13
  6. 6 DET 19 HOU 17
  7. 7 DET 23 HOU 25
  8. 8 DET 6 HOU 13
  9. 9 DET 6 HOU 19
  10. 10 DET 17 HOU 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 60% of them, Texans 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+17.5%
Lions by 9–1616.5%
Lions by 1–823.6%
Level after regulation2.7%
Texans by 1–818.7%
Texans by 9–1612.0%
Texans by 17+9.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 3.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 56 yds made · 66% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Bates, 58 yds made · 63% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 58 yds missed · 63% expected
  • J. Bates, 52 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Terrion Arnold), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 494 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +7% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q4 5:11 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedA. St. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 326 catchable balls before this +13% HOU DET: Field goal
3 Q4 5:06 J. Bates made 58-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +13% DET DET: Field goal
4 Q4 4:17 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
5 Q4 2:00 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% DET HOU: Missed field goal
6 Q4 1:56 K. Fairbairn missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 43 of 60 from 45+ before +23% DET –
7 Q4 1:40 The Lions converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +15% DET DET: Field goal
8 Q4 0:04 J. Bates made 52-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before +30% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stefon Diggs (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mario Edwards (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Aidan Hutchinson (DET DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Derrick Barnes (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 31% · Texans 69%

Final margin
Lions by 3
Luck in points
6.0 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 3.0
Replay with same day's form
Lions 60% · Texans 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Lions · Texans

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