luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Vikings at Jaguars, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Jaguars 12–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:57 left): the Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 40 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 12
Jacksonville Jaguars 7

November 10, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −7

Luck index +16 Vikings about even · −16 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 8, Jaguars win 2.

  1. 1 MIN 38 JAX 10
  2. 2 MIN 33 JAX 12
  3. 3 MIN 31 JAX 14
  4. 4 MIN 25 JAX 10
  5. 5 MIN 17 JAX 6
  6. 6 MIN 19 JAX 10
  7. 7 MIN 25 JAX 20
  8. 8 MIN 19 JAX 17
  9. 9 MIN 17 JAX 21
  10. 10 MIN 16 JAX 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 84% of them, Jaguars 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+35.0%
Vikings by 9–1623.3%
Vikings by 1–825.0%
Level after regulation1.1%
Jaguars by 1–810.9%
Jaguars by 9–163.6%
Jaguars by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 9.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Romo, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Romo, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Romo, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Romo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:10 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:24 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +23% JAX MIN: Field goal
3 Q3 8:38 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3203 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +17% MIN MIN: Field goal
4 Q4 6:38 The Jaguars fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% MIN JAX: Turnover
5 Q4 2:53 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% JAX MIN: Punt
6 Q4 2:03 Face Mask on the Vikings (Blake Cashman), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2298 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +11% JAX JAX: Turnover
7 Q4 1:57 The Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +40% MIN –
8 Q4 1:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2441 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +14% MIN MIN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 5.0 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ezra Cleveland (JAX G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Will Reichard (MIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew DePaola (MIN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 33% · Jaguars 67%

Final margin
Vikings by 5
Luck in points
14.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 9.2
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 84% · Jaguars 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Vikings · Jaguars

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