luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Vikings at Jaguars, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Jaguars 12–7, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:57 left): the Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 40 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 12
Jacksonville Jaguars 7

November 10, 2024 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −7

Luck index +22 Vikings about even · −22 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 8, Jaguars win 2.

  1. 1 MIN 23 JAX 0
  2. 2 MIN 29 JAX 10
  3. 3 MIN 22 JAX 6
  4. 4 MIN 21 JAX 9
  5. 5 MIN 27 JAX 17
  6. 6 MIN 31 JAX 23
  7. 7 MIN 15 JAX 10
  8. 8 MIN 12 JAX 9
  9. 9 MIN 13 JAX 17
  10. 10 MIN 6 JAX 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 78% of them, Jaguars 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+28.3%
Vikings by 9–1622.1%
Vikings by 1–827.0%
Level after regulation2.3%
Jaguars by 1–812.8%
Jaguars by 9–165.8%
Jaguars by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.4 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 5, without the luck Jaguars by 4.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Romo, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Romo, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Romo, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Romo, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 6 for 40 yards, Jaguars 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:56 Illegal Formation on the Vikings (Brian Asamoah), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.3 pts
Q1 3:06 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 9:08 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 5 yards +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 8:03 False Start on the Vikings (Jalen Nailor), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.7 pts
Q3 8:38 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 5 yards, wiping out the play +17% MIN +4.0 pts
Q3 5:16 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% JAX +0.7 pts
Q3 2:56 Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% JAX +1.4 pts
Q4 2:03 Face Mask on the Vikings (Blake Cashman), 15 yards +11% JAX +1.1 pts
Q4 1:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 15 yards +14% MIN +1.4 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2024

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:42 The Vikings got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 56% of interception-worthy throws +8% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q3 8:38 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3203 snaps before, position avg 1 per 215 +17% MIN MIN: Field goal
3 Q3 2:56 Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q4 8:56 The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +7% MIN MIN: Field goal
5 Q4 6:38 The Jaguars fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% MIN JAX: Turnover
6 Q4 2:03 Face Mask on the Vikings (Blake Cashman), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2298 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +11% JAX JAX: Turnover
7 Q4 1:57 The Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +40% MIN –
8 Q4 1:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Travon Walker), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2441 snaps before, position avg 1 per 297 +14% MIN MIN: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 5.0 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ezra Cleveland (JAX G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Will Reichard (MIN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew DePaola (MIN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 45% · Jaguars 55%

Final margin
Vikings by 5
Luck in points
9.5 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 78% · Jaguars 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Vikings · Jaguars

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