luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

49ers at Buccaneers, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Buccaneers 23–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8.8 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): J. Moody made 44-yard field goal, worth 24 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

November 10, 2024 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −6.5

Luck index +16 49ers about even · −16 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Buccaneers win 2.

  1. 1 SF 41 TB 10
  2. 2 SF 34 TB 12
  3. 3 SF 38 TB 20
  4. 4 SF 39 TB 24
  5. 5 SF 21 TB 10
  6. 6 SF 31 TB 23
  7. 7 SF 26 TB 20
  8. 8 SF 30 TB 28
  9. 9 SF 28 TB 30
  10. 10 SF 26 TB 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 84% of them, Buccaneers 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+38.5%
49ers by 9–1622.2%
49ers by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation1.0%
Buccaneers by 1–89.9%
Buccaneers by 9–164.2%
Buccaneers by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 6.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Moody, 49 yds missed · 72% expected
  • J. Moody, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Moody, 50 yds missed · 69% expected
  • J. Moody, 44 yds missed · 80% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Moody, 44 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 3:13 J. Moody missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +17% TB SF: Field goal
2 Q4 2:30 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% TB TB: Field goal
3 Q4 1:20 R. White dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 163 catchable balls before this +22% SF TB: Field goal
4 Q4 1:18 Face Mask on the 49ers (Fred Warner), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 6439 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +13% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q4 1:14 Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Maliek Collins), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 24 flags in 4005 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +13% TB TB: Field goal
6 Q4 1:04 Illegal Use of Hands on the 49ers, 5 yardsJudgment calls +14% TB TB: Field goal
7 Q4 0:48 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% SF TB: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 J. Moody made 44-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +24% SF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike Evans (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tykee Smith (TB SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • SirVocea Dennis (TB LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Brandon Aiyuk (SF WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Charvarius Ward (SF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Javon Hargrave (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Talanoa Hufanga (SF SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 89% · Buccaneers 11%

Final margin
49ers by 3
Luck in points
3.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
49ers 84% · Buccaneers 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · 49ers · Buccaneers

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