luckadjusted

Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024

Titans at Chargers, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Titans 27–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.6 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:24 left): N. Folk missed 49-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Tennessee Titans 17
Los Angeles Chargers 27

November 10, 2024 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −8

Luck index +16 Chargers about even · −16 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 2, Chargers win 8.

  1. 1 TEN 20 LAC 10
  2. 2 TEN 23 LAC 20
  3. 3 TEN 24 LAC 26
  4. 4 TEN 10 LAC 14
  5. 5 TEN 9 LAC 16
  6. 6 TEN 7 LAC 17
  7. 7 TEN 3 LAC 16
  8. 8 TEN 10 LAC 26
  9. 9 TEN 7 LAC 26
  10. 10 TEN 7 LAC 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 16% of them, Chargers 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+1.1%
Titans by 9–164.7%
Titans by 1–810.1%
Level after regulation2.1%
Chargers by 1–828.0%
Chargers by 9–1623.1%
Chargers by 17+30.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 6.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Dicker, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • N. Folk, 49 yds missed · 81% expected
  • N. Folk, 27 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:10 C. Dicker made 21-yard field goalKicks · 100% expected for him +6% TEN LAC: Punt
2 Q2 15:00 Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% LAC LAC: Field goal
3 Q2 12:16 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedW. Dissly dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 90 catchable balls before this +11% TEN LAC: Field goal
4 Q2 7:06 Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:24 N. Folk missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 42 of 53 from 45+ before +13% LAC TEN: Punt
6 Q2 2:33 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +4% TEN LAC: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:00 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:30 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (LAC CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 8% · Chargers 92%

Final margin
Chargers by 10
Luck in points
3.5 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 6.5
Replay with same day's form
Titans 16% · Chargers 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · Titans · Chargers

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