Week 10 2024 · November 10, 2024
Titans at Chargers, Week 10 2024: who deserved to win?
The Chargers beat the Titans 27–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Titans.
Before kickoff the Chargers were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:24 left): N. Folk missed a 49-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 17 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Chargers about even · −19 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 2, Chargers win 8.
- 1 TEN 25 LAC 13
- 2 TEN 20 LAC 17
- 3 TEN 35 LAC 37
- 4 TEN 13 LAC 17
- 5 TEN 23 LAC 30
- 6 TEN 27 LAC 37
- 7 TEN 16 LAC 29
- 8 TEN 10 LAC 26
- 9 TEN 13 LAC 34
- 10 TEN 0 LAC 26
Your call
Did the Chargers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 19% of them, Chargers 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 1.4% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 11.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 29.0% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 22.8% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 28.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Dicker, 21 yds made · 100% expected
- C. Dicker, 37 yds made · 94% expected
- N. Folk, 49 yds missed · 80% expected
- N. Folk, 27 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Titans 9 for 68 yards, Chargers 5 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:01 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LAC 0.0 pts |
| Q1 4:55 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LAC +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:59 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +2% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yards | +6% LAC +1.8 pts |
| Q2 13:54 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans (Jarvis Brownlee), 5 yards | +3% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:02 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Derwin James), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 11:43 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Alohi Gilman), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN 0.0 pts |
| Q2 7:06 | Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yards | +5% LAC +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:02 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LAC +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:09 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Tuli Tuipulotu), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 10:53 | Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LAC +0.7 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers, 5 yards | +1% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:26 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kenneth Murray), 8 yards | +1% LAC +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:01 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LAC +0.4 pts |
Titans penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2024
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 15:00 | Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% LAC | LAC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 12:16 | W. Dissly dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 90 catchable balls before this | +8% TEN | LAC: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 7:06 | Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 6:24 | N. Folk missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 42 of 53 from 45+ before | +13% LAC | TEN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 2:33 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +4% TEN | LAC: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 2:00 | The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +4% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 7:58 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% LAC | TEN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 3:30 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.8 pts
- Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Kristian Fulton (LAC CB), out · 0.5 pts
- L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Quandre Diggs (TEN FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Chidobe Awuzie (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 1% · Chargers 99%
- Final margin
- Chargers by 10
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 9.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 19% · Chargers 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2024 games · 
Titans · 
Chargers
More from Week 10 2024
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 35–34 · replay 78% for the winner
- Giants vs Panthers CAR 20–17 · replay 24% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 20–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Bills at Colts BUF 30–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 16–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Vikings at Jaguars MIN 12–7 · replay 78% for the winner
- Patriots at Bears NE 19–3 · replay 58% for the winner
- Steelers at Commanders PIT 28–27 · replay 5% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers SF 23–20 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jets at Cardinals ARI 31–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys PHI 34–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Lions at Texans DET 26–23 · replay 56% for the winner
- Dolphins at Rams MIA 23–15 · replay 28% for the winner