Falcons 35 
Packers 14 Deserved · Falcons win 92% of replays Off day for the Packers 57% to win a fresh game, 8% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. Week 3 2026 · September 24, 2026–September 28
The NFL deserve-to-win meter
Who deserved to win every game of Week 3 2026: 5 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Rams 30–26, a game the Rams win 93% of the time. The surest winner: the Chiefs, 97% of replays.
Every game is replayed 4,000 times from its own plays: each team’s snaps resampled into new drives, the kicks, bounces and calls drawn at their usual rates. The meter is how often each team wins those replays. Hockey fans know the idea from MoneyPuck’s Deserve To Win O’Meter, which replays each game from its shots; this is the football version. How the replay works
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more the winner owes to luck. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Falcons 35 Packers 14 Deserved · Falcons win 92% of replays Off day for the Packers 57% to win a fresh game, 8% with this day’s form: offense and defense both far below their usual level. 
Panthers unlucky 18 
Browns lucky 21 Stolen · Browns win 9% of replays The Browns won on an off day 47% to win a fresh game, 9% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. 
Bengals 27 
Steelers 30 Deserved · Steelers win 65% of replays 
Texans unlucky 17 
Colts lucky 19 Winner outplayed · Colts win 25% of replays 
Chiefs 24 
Dolphins 10 Deserved · Chiefs win 97% of replays 
Chargers 16 
Bills 24 Deserved · Bills win 70% of replays 
Patriots 6 
Jaguars 35 Deserved · Jaguars win 93% of replays 
Jets 24 
Lions 31 Deserved · Lions win 92% of replays 
Seahawks unlucky 31 
Commanders lucky 33 Winner outplayed · Commanders win 26% of replays 
Titans 7 
Giants 12 Deserved · Giants win 82% of replays 
Cardinals 30 
49ers 36 Deserved · 49ers win 92% of replays 
Vikings 23 
Buccaneers 16 Deserved · Vikings win 74% of replays 
Ravens 34 
Cowboys 31 Deserved · Ravens win 75% of replays 
Raiders 35 
Saints 27 Coin flip · Raiders win 47% of replays 
Rams unlucky 26 
Broncos lucky 30 Stolen · Broncos win 7% of replays The Broncos won on an off day 54% to win a fresh game, 7% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. 
Eagles 7 
Bears 27 Deserved · Bears win 95% of replays Off day for the Eagles 51% to win a fresh game, 5% with this day’s form: far below what the matchup promised. Week 3 2026: upsets and the luck ranking · 2026 luck rankings · The luckiest wins since 2019
Earlier weeks, 2026
| Week | Winners outplayed |
|---|---|
| Week 2 2026 | 2 of 16 |
| Week 1 2026 | 5 of 16 |