Week 4 · October 4–5
NFL predictions, week 4 Every game of the week, forecast from what each team’s play has been worth once the luck is adjusted for, what it was worth last season, who starts at quarterback and who is out hurt. No betting information goes in; the line is shown beside each forecast. Tested on every game from 2001 to 2025, this forecast picked 65.3% of winners.
Updated Oct 2, 12:29 pm ET with the latest injury reports and projected starters. Each forecast is frozen at kickoff and scored when the game is played. How it has done
Weeks ahead 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±12.9, so about 88% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Colts by 0.4 · 51% to win · line Colts −3.5
Ours: Colts by 0.4 Line: Colts by 3.5 Colts win 51% Commanders win 49% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Colts win by Commanders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Colts win 51.2% Commanders win 48.8% Middle 50%: Colts by 9 to Commanders by 8 50% Middle 90%: Colts by 21 to Commanders by 21 90% Middle 95%: Colts by 26 to Commanders by 25 95% Exactly Colts by 3 8.4% Exactly Commanders by 3 8.3% Exactly Colts by 7 5.1% Exactly Commanders by 7 4.9% Exactly Colts by 10 3.5%
P50 Half of games like this end between Colts by 9 and Commanders by 8. P90 9 in 10 between Colts by 21 and Commanders by 21. P95 19 in 20 between Colts by 26 and Commanders by 25. Out or doubtful: Colts: Alec Pierce (WR); Commanders: Laremy Tunsil (T), Nick Cross (S).
Colts vs Commanders prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from Last season Colts +1.9 This season, adjusted for luck Commanders +1.0 Home field Commanders +0.6 Injuries Colts +0.3 Quarterbacks Commanders +0.3
Giants by 0.9 · 53% to win · line Cardinals −2.5
Ours: Giants by 0.9 Line: Cardinals by 2.5 Cardinals win 47% Giants win 53% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Cardinals win by Giants win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cardinals win 47.1% Giants win 52.9% Middle 50%: Cardinals by 7 to Giants by 10 50% Middle 90%: Cardinals by 21 to Giants by 22 90% Middle 95%: Cardinals by 24 to Giants by 26 95% Exactly Giants by 3 8.5% Exactly Cardinals by 3 8.2% Exactly Giants by 7 5.2% Exactly Cardinals by 7 4.8% Exactly Giants by 10 3.6%
P50 Half of games like this end between Cardinals by 7 and Giants by 10. P90 9 in 10 between Cardinals by 21 and Giants by 22. P95 19 in 20 between Cardinals by 24 and Giants by 26. Jameis Winston starts for the Giants in place of Jaxson Dart.
Out or doubtful: Cardinals: Will Johnson (CB); Giants: Paulson Adebo (CB), Brian Burns (LB), Roy Robertson-Harris (DT).
Cardinals vs Giants prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from Home field Giants +2.3 Quarterbacks Cardinals +1.8 Injuries Cardinals +1.1 Last season Giants +0.7 This season, adjusted for luck Giants +0.7
Texans by 1.6 · 55% to win · line Texans −3.0
Ours: Texans by 1.6 Line: Texans by 3.0 Cowboys win 45% Texans win 55% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Cowboys win by Texans win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Cowboys win 45.1% Texans win 54.9% Middle 50%: Cowboys by 7 to Texans by 10 50% Middle 90%: Cowboys by 20 to Texans by 23 90% Middle 95%: Cowboys by 24 to Texans by 27 95% Exactly Texans by 3 8.6% Exactly Cowboys by 3 8.1% Exactly Texans by 7 5.3% Exactly Cowboys by 7 4.6% Exactly Texans by 10 3.7%
P50 Half of games like this end between Cowboys by 7 and Texans by 10. P90 9 in 10 between Cowboys by 20 and Texans by 23. P95 19 in 20 between Cowboys by 24 and Texans by 27. Out or doubtful: Cowboys: Tyler Smith (OL), Jalen Thompson (S); Texans: Jayden Higgins (WR), Henry To'oTo'o (LB).
Cowboys vs Texans prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from Home field Texans +2.3 Last season Texans +2.2 This season, adjusted for luck Cowboys +2.0 Quarterbacks Cowboys +1.4 Injuries Texans +0.5
Packers by 0.5 · 52% to win · line Packers −3.5
Ours: Packers by 0.5 Line: Packers by 3.5 Packers win 52% Buccaneers win 48% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Packers win by Buccaneers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Packers win 51.7% Buccaneers win 48.3% Middle 50%: Packers by 10 to Buccaneers by 8 50% Middle 90%: Packers by 21 to Buccaneers by 21 90% Middle 95%: Packers by 26 to Buccaneers by 25 95% Exactly Packers by 3 8.5% Exactly Buccaneers by 3 8.3% Exactly Packers by 7 5.1% Exactly Buccaneers by 7 4.9% Exactly Packers by 10 3.5%
P50 Half of games like this end between Packers by 10 and Buccaneers by 8. P90 9 in 10 between Packers by 21 and Buccaneers by 21. P95 19 in 20 between Packers by 26 and Buccaneers by 25. Jalon Daniels starts for the Buccaneers in place of Baker Mayfield.
Out or doubtful: Packers: Jayden Reed (WR), Luke Musgrave (TE), Zach Bako-Bewele (OL).
Packers vs Buccaneers prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from Quarterbacks Packers +4.2 Home field Buccaneers +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Buccaneers +1.6 Last season Packers +1.4 Injuries Buccaneers +1.2
Jaguars by 2.3 · 57% to win · line Bengals −2.5
Ours: Jaguars by 2.3 Line: Bengals by 2.5 Jaguars win 57% Bengals win 43% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Jaguars win by Bengals win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jaguars win 57.0% Bengals win 43.0% Middle 50%: Jaguars by 11 to Bengals by 7 50% Middle 90%: Jaguars by 24 to Bengals by 19 90% Middle 95%: Jaguars by 28 to Bengals by 23 95% Exactly Jaguars by 3 8.6% Exactly Bengals by 3 7.9% Exactly Jaguars by 7 5.4% Exactly Bengals by 7 4.5% Exactly Jaguars by 10 3.8%
P50 Half of games like this end between Jaguars by 11 and Bengals by 7. P90 9 in 10 between Jaguars by 24 and Bengals by 19. P95 19 in 20 between Jaguars by 28 and Bengals by 23. Out or doubtful: Jaguars: Patrick Mekari (OL); Bengals: Jalen Davis (CB), Andrei Iosivas (WR).
Jaguars vs Bengals prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from Last season Jaguars +2.8 Home field Bengals +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Jaguars +1.8 Quarterbacks Bengals +0.4 Injuries Jaguars +0.4
Rams by 1.6 · 55% to win · line Rams −3.5
Ours: Rams by 1.6 Line: Rams by 3.5 Rams win 55% Eagles win 45% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Rams win by Eagles win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Rams win 54.8% Eagles win 45.2% Middle 50%: Rams by 10 to Eagles by 7 50% Middle 90%: Rams by 23 to Eagles by 20 90% Middle 95%: Rams by 27 to Eagles by 24 95% Exactly Rams by 3 8.6% Exactly Eagles by 3 8.1% Exactly Rams by 7 5.3% Exactly Eagles by 7 4.6% Exactly Rams by 10 3.7%
P50 Half of games like this end between Rams by 10 and Eagles by 7. P90 9 in 10 between Rams by 23 and Eagles by 20. P95 19 in 20 between Rams by 27 and Eagles by 24. Out or doubtful: Rams: Justin Dedich (OL); Eagles: Landon Dickerson (G).
Rams vs Eagles prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from Home field Eagles +2.3 Last season Rams +1.9 Quarterbacks Rams +1.2 This season, adjusted for luck Rams +0.7 Injuries Rams +0.1
Bills by 7.0 · 71% to win · line Bills −7.0
Ours: Bills by 7.0 Line: Bills by 7.0 Patriots win 29% Bills win 71% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Patriots win by Bills win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Patriots win 29.3% Bills win 70.8% Middle 50%: Patriots by 3 to Bills by 16 50% Middle 90%: Patriots by 14 to Bills by 28 90% Middle 95%: Patriots by 18 to Bills by 32 95% Exactly Bills by 3 8.2% Exactly Patriots by 3 6.4% Exactly Bills by 7 5.8% Exactly Bills by 14 5.0% Exactly Bills by 10 4.5%
P50 Half of games like this end between Patriots by 3 and Bills by 16. P90 9 in 10 between Patriots by 14 and Bills by 28. P95 19 in 20 between Patriots by 18 and Bills by 32. Out or doubtful: Patriots: Bryce Baringer (P); Bills: Tyrell Shavers (WR).
Patriots vs Bills prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Bills +3.7 Home field Bills +2.3 Quarterbacks Bills +1.1 Last season Patriots +0.2
Bears by 6.8 · 70% to win · line Bears −3.5
Ours: Bears by 6.8 Line: Bears by 3.5 Jets win 30% Bears win 70% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Jets win by Bears win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Jets win 29.6% Bears win 70.4% Middle 50%: Jets by 3 to Bears by 16 50% Middle 90%: Jets by 14 to Bears by 28 90% Middle 95%: Jets by 18 to Bears by 32 95% Exactly Bears by 3 8.2% Exactly Jets by 3 6.4% Exactly Bears by 7 5.8% Exactly Bears by 14 4.9% Exactly Bears by 10 4.5%
P50 Half of games like this end between Jets by 3 and Bears by 16. P90 9 in 10 between Jets by 14 and Bears by 28. P95 19 in 20 between Jets by 18 and Bears by 32. Case Keenum starts for the Bears in place of Caleb Williams.
Out or doubtful: Bears: Kyler Gordon (DB).
Jets vs Bears prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Bears +3.3 Last season Bears +2.9 Home field Bears +2.3 Quarterbacks Jets +1.5 Injuries Jets +0.3
Ravens by 13.0 · 85% to win · line Ravens −11.5
Ours: Ravens by 13.0 Line: Ravens by 11.5 Titans win 15% Ravens win 85% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Titans win by Ravens win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Titans win 15.3% Ravens win 84.7% Middle 50%: Ravens by 4 to Ravens by 21 50% Middle 90%: Titans by 8 to Ravens by 34 90% Middle 95%: Titans by 13 to Ravens by 38 95% Exactly Ravens by 3 6.4% Exactly Ravens by 14 5.7% Exactly Ravens by 7 5.2% Exactly Ravens by 10 4.5% Exactly Ravens by 17 4.0%
P50 Half of games like this end between Ravens by 4 and Ravens by 21. P90 9 in 10 between Titans by 8 and Ravens by 34. P95 19 in 20 between Titans by 13 and Ravens by 38. Out or doubtful: Titans: Kendell Brooks (DB), Fernando Carmona (G), Jaylen Harrell (LB).
Titans vs Ravens prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from Last season Ravens +3.5 This season, adjusted for luck Ravens +3.3 Quarterbacks Ravens +3.2 Home field Ravens +2.3 Injuries Ravens +0.7
Vikings by 8.8 · 75% to win · line Vikings −10.5
Ours: Vikings by 8.8 Line: Vikings by 10.5 Dolphins win 25% Vikings win 75% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Dolphins win by Vikings win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Dolphins win 24.6% Vikings win 75.4% Middle 50%: Vikings by 1 to Vikings by 17 50% Middle 90%: Dolphins by 13 to Vikings by 30 90% Middle 95%: Dolphins by 17 to Vikings by 34 95% Exactly Vikings by 3 7.8% Exactly Vikings by 7 5.7% Exactly Dolphins by 3 5.7% Exactly Vikings by 14 5.3% Exactly Vikings by 10 4.6%
P50 Half of games like this end between Vikings by 1 and Vikings by 17. P90 9 in 10 between Dolphins by 13 and Vikings by 30. P95 19 in 20 between Dolphins by 17 and Vikings by 34. Out or doubtful: Dolphins: De'Von Achane (RB); Vikings: Josh Oliver (TE), Michael Jurgens (G).
Dolphins vs Vikings prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Vikings +5.5 Home field Vikings +2.3 Last season Vikings +0.8 Injuries Vikings +0.2 Quarterbacks Dolphins +0.1
49ers by 5.7 · 67% to win · line 49ers −3.0
Ours: 49ers by 5.7 Line: 49ers by 3.0 Broncos win 33% 49ers win 67% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Broncos win by 49ers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Broncos win 32.7% 49ers win 67.3% Middle 50%: Broncos by 3 to 49ers by 14 50% Middle 90%: Broncos by 16 to 49ers by 27 90% Middle 95%: Broncos by 20 to 49ers by 31 95% Exactly 49ers by 3 8.4% Exactly Broncos by 3 6.9% Exactly 49ers by 7 5.7% Exactly 49ers by 14 4.7% Exactly 49ers by 10 4.4%
P50 Half of games like this end between Broncos by 3 and 49ers by 14. P90 9 in 10 between Broncos by 16 and 49ers by 27. P95 19 in 20 between Broncos by 20 and 49ers by 31. Out or doubtful: 49ers: Ricky Pearsall (WR), Sam Okuayinonu (DL).
Broncos vs 49ers prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck 49ers +4.5 Home field 49ers +2.3 Last season Broncos +1.5 Quarterbacks 49ers +1.2 Injuries Broncos +0.8
Chiefs by 3.6 · 61% to win · line Chiefs −4.5
Ours: Chiefs by 3.6 Line: Chiefs by 4.5 Chiefs win 61% Raiders win 39% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Chiefs win by Raiders win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chiefs win 61.1% Raiders win 38.9% Middle 50%: Chiefs by 13 to Raiders by 5 50% Middle 90%: Chiefs by 25 to Raiders by 18 90% Middle 95%: Chiefs by 28 to Raiders by 21 95% Exactly Chiefs by 3 8.6% Exactly Raiders by 3 7.6% Exactly Chiefs by 7 5.6% Exactly Chiefs by 14 4.2% Exactly Raiders by 7 4.1%
P50 Half of games like this end between Chiefs by 13 and Raiders by 5. P90 9 in 10 between Chiefs by 25 and Raiders by 18. P95 19 in 20 between Chiefs by 28 and Raiders by 21. Out or doubtful: Raiders: Jack Bech (WR).
Chiefs vs Raiders prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from Last season Chiefs +2.9 Home field Raiders +2.3 This season, adjusted for luck Chiefs +1.6 Quarterbacks Chiefs +1.1 Injuries Chiefs +0.3
Seahawks by 10.0 · 78% to win · line Seahawks −7.0
Ours: Seahawks by 10.0 Line: Seahawks by 7.0 Chargers win 22% Seahawks win 78% 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 ← Chargers win by Seahawks win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Chargers win 21.6% Seahawks win 78.5% Middle 50%: Seahawks by 3 to Seahawks by 19 50% Middle 90%: Chargers by 11 to Seahawks by 31 90% Middle 95%: Chargers by 15 to Seahawks by 35 95% Exactly Seahawks by 3 7.4% Exactly Seahawks by 7 5.6% Exactly Seahawks by 14 5.5% Exactly Chargers by 3 5.2% Exactly Seahawks by 10 4.6%
P50 Half of games like this end between Seahawks by 3 and Seahawks by 19. P90 9 in 10 between Chargers by 11 and Seahawks by 31. P95 19 in 20 between Chargers by 15 and Seahawks by 35. Out or doubtful: Chargers: Trey Pipkins (G), Denzel Perryman (LB); Seahawks: Anthony Bradford (G), Zach Charbonnet (RB).
Chargers vs Seahawks prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from This season, adjusted for luck Seahawks +5.9 Home field Seahawks +2.3 Last season Seahawks +2.3 Quarterbacks Chargers +0.5
Lions by 4.7 · 64% to win · line Lions −3.5
Ours: Lions by 4.7 Line: Lions by 3.5 Lions win 64% Panthers win 36% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Lions win by Panthers win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Lions win 64.4% Panthers win 35.6% Middle 50%: Lions by 14 to Panthers by 4 50% Middle 90%: Lions by 26 to Panthers by 17 90% Middle 95%: Lions by 30 to Panthers by 21 95% Exactly Lions by 3 8.5% Exactly Panthers by 3 7.2% Exactly Lions by 7 5.7% Exactly Lions by 14 4.4% Exactly Lions by 10 4.2%
P50 Half of games like this end between Lions by 14 and Panthers by 4. P90 9 in 10 between Lions by 26 and Panthers by 17. P95 19 in 20 between Lions by 30 and Panthers by 21. Out or doubtful: Lions: Avonte Maddox (DB); Panthers: Ikem Ekwonu (T), Taylor Moton (T), Jaycee Horn (CB) and 1 more.
Lions vs Panthers prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from Injuries Lions +2.8 Quarterbacks Lions +2.4 Home field Panthers +2.3 Last season Lions +1.8 This season, adjusted for luck Lions +0.1
Falcons by 0.2 · 51% to win · line Saints −2.5
Ours: Falcons by 0.2 Line: Saints by 2.5 Falcons win 51% Saints win 49% 42 35 28 21 14 7 0 7 14 21 28 35 42 ← Falcons win by Saints win by → P50 P90 P95 Show as a table Outcome Chance Falcons win 50.8% Saints win 49.3% Middle 50%: Falcons by 9 to Saints by 8 50% Middle 90%: Falcons by 21 to Saints by 21 90% Middle 95%: Falcons by 25 to Saints by 25 95% Exactly Falcons by 3 8.4% Exactly Saints by 3 8.3% Exactly Falcons by 7 5.0% Exactly Saints by 7 4.9% Exactly Falcons by 10 3.5%
P50 Half of games like this end between Falcons by 9 and Saints by 8. P90 9 in 10 between Falcons by 21 and Saints by 21. P95 19 in 20 between Falcons by 25 and Saints by 25. Michael Penix Jr. starts for the Falcons in place of Cooper Rush.
Out or doubtful: Saints: Bryan Bresee (DT), Mason Tipton (WR), Dillon Radunz (OL) and 1 more.
Falcons vs Saints prediction: the full preview →
Where the forecast comes from Home field Saints +2.3 Quarterbacks Falcons +2.1 Injuries Falcons +1.1 This season, adjusted for luck Saints +0.8 Last season Falcons +0.1
How good is it? This season so far: 63.3% of 49 games picked right (log loss 0.666). The 48 games played before the forecasts went live were forecast afterwards from what was known before each kickoff. One season is too few games to judge a forecast; the test below is.
Every regular-season game from 2001 to 2025, each season forecast by a model fitted on the others (6,471 games):
The forecast is weakest in September, when a record says little and last season carries most of the weight, and sharpest from week 9 on, when this season’s games have had their say. Its win chances are honest: games it gave 58% on average were won 58% of the time, those it gave 72%, 72%. So are its ranges: the P90 range held 90% of final margins, the P95 range 94%, the P50 range 54%.
Forecasts for weeks further ahead are less sure: this season’s games so far count, but nobody knows the starters or the injuries yet. Measured the same way, made some weeks ahead:
What goes in, and what doesn’t This season, adjusted for luck. Each team’s record with every kick, fumble bounce, 3rd and 4th down and judgment call re-rolled at its expected rate, and its point margin. Why the luck comes out .Last season. It counts like six more games at half strength, so it matters most in September and fades as the season’s own games pile up.Quarterbacks. The projected starter’s expected points per dropback over this season and the two before, and the change when he isn’t the usual starter. A quarterback with no record counts as a typical backup.Injuries. Key players out, doubtful or on injured reserve on the week’s report, valued by position, quality and how much they usually play.Home field. None at neutral sites. Tested and left out, because they didn’t make the forecast better on past seasons: days of rest and byes, travel distance and time zones, division games, efficiency per play on top of the record and margin, and a home-field edge that changes with the era. The shape of the curve comes from how NFL games actually end: a 3-point margin happens 2.7 times as often as a smooth curve says, a 7-point one 1.8 times, a 4-point one less often.
Power rankings · Proof the luck model is right · Does luck beat the spread? · Methodology
Colts vs 
Commanders 
