luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2026 NFL season · September 24, 2026–September 28

Week 3 2026: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Browns beat the Panthers 21–18 in a game they win 8% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 3 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Commanders 33–31 vs Seahawks 26% 26% Lucky
Falcons 35–14 @ Packers 37% 90% Deserved
Steelers 30–27 vs Bengals 40% 65% Deserved
Bears 27–7 vs Eagles 40% 95% Deserved
Raiders 35–27 @ Saints 40% 47% Coin flip
Browns 21–18 vs Panthers 43% 8% Lucky
Colts 19–17 vs Texans 46% 25% Lucky

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 30–26 vs Rams 7% +93
2 Browns W 21–18 vs Panthers 8% +92
3 Colts W 19–17 vs Texans 25% +75
4 Commanders W 33–31 vs Seahawks 26% +74
5 Raiders W 35–27 @ Saints 47% +53
6 Steelers W 30–27 vs Bengals 65% +35
7 Bills W 24–16 vs Chargers 70% +30
8 Vikings W 23–16 @ Buccaneers 73% +27
9 Ravens W 34–31 @ Cowboys 75% +25
10 Giants W 12–7 vs Titans 81% +19
11 Falcons W 35–14 @ Packers 90% +10
12 49ers W 36–30 vs Cardinals 92% +8
13 Lions W 31–24 vs Jets 93% +7
14 Jaguars W 35–6 vs Patriots 93% +7
15 Bears W 27–7 vs Eagles 95% +5
16 Chiefs W 24–10 @ Dolphins 98% +2
17 Dolphins L 10–24 vs Chiefs 2% −2
18 Eagles L 7–27 @ Bears 5% −5
19 Patriots L 6–35 @ Jaguars 7% −7
20 Jets L 24–31 @ Lions 7% −7
21 Cardinals L 30–36 @ 49ers 8% −8
22 Packers L 14–35 vs Falcons 10% −10
23 Titans L 7–12 @ Giants 19% −19
24 Cowboys L 31–34 vs Ravens 25% −25
25 Buccaneers L 16–23 vs Vikings 27% −27
26 Chargers L 16–24 @ Bills 30% −30
27 Bengals L 27–30 @ Steelers 35% −35
28 Saints L 27–35 vs Raiders 53% −53
29 Seahawks L 31–33 @ Commanders 74% −74
30 Texans L 17–19 @ Colts 75% −75
31 Panthers L 18–21 @ Browns 92% −92
32 Rams L 26–30 @ Broncos 93% −93