luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Texans at Colts, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Texans 19–17, but the replays lean toward the Texans: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 36 points of win probability to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Texans were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:21 left): S. Shrader made a 53-yard field goal, worth 33 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Houston Texans 17
Indianapolis Colts 19

September 27, 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Texans −1.5

Luck index +75 Colts very lucky · −75 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 8, Colts win 2.

  1. 1 HOU 31 IND 7
  2. 2 HOU 21 IND 3
  3. 3 HOU 33 IND 20
  4. 4 HOU 41 IND 31
  5. 5 HOU 20 IND 13
  6. 6 HOU 26 IND 21
  7. 7 HOU 27 IND 24
  8. 8 HOU 21 IND 19
  9. 9 HOU 17 IND 21
  10. 10 HOU 3 IND 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 75% of them, Colts 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+20.3%
Texans by 9–1623.3%
Texans by 1–828.3%
Level after regulation3.8%
Colts by 1–814.5%
Colts by 9–167.4%
Colts by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 2, without the luck Texans by 3.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Shrader, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • S. Shrader, 58 yds made · 61% expected
  • S. Shrader, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • S. Shrader, 53 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 2 for 14 yards, Colts 6 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:38 False Start on the Colts (Keenan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q1 3:07 Defensive Offside on the Colts (JT Tuimoloau), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q1 3:02 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% IND +2.4 pts
Q2 5:07 Face Mask on the Colts (Charvarius Ward), 9 yards +3% HOU +1.1 pts
Q2 4:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Sauce Gardner), 7 yards +2% HOU +1.0 pts
Q2 0:58 Encroachment on the Colts (Adetomiwa Adebawore), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.4 pts
Q3 12:42 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Laquon Treadwell), 10 yards +3% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 10:01 Delay of Game on the Texans, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.3 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:28 The Colts fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% HOU IND: Field goal
2 Q1 9:47 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% IND HOU: Punt
3 Q1 7:37 The Colts converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q1 3:02 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:17 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q4 9:48 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% HOU HOU: Field goal
7 Q4 4:45 The Colts fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU IND: Field goal
8 Q4 0:21 The game turned hereS. Shrader made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 7 of 8 from 45+ before +33% IND –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alec Pierce (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jayden Higgins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Ingram (HOU G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Henry To'oTo'o (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 66% · Colts 34%

Final margin
Colts by 2
Luck in points
5.5 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Texans 75% · Colts 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Texans · Colts

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