luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Patriots at Jaguars, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Patriots 35–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:04 left): Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

New England Patriots 6
Jacksonville Jaguars 35

September 27, 2026 · EverBank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3

Luck index +7 Jaguars about even · −7 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 1, Jaguars win 9.

  1. 1 NE 21 JAX 14
  2. 2 NE 17 JAX 19
  3. 3 NE 24 JAX 28
  4. 4 NE 20 JAX 27
  5. 5 NE 31 JAX 41
  6. 6 NE 24 JAX 37
  7. 7 NE 14 JAX 30
  8. 8 NE 10 JAX 30
  9. 9 NE 10 JAX 34
  10. 10 NE 7 JAX 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 7% of them, Jaguars 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+0.2%
Patriots by 9–161.4%
Patriots by 1–84.6%
Level after regulation1.1%
Jaguars by 1–815.2%
Jaguars by 9–1622.9%
Jaguars by 17+54.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 29, without the luck Jaguars by 25.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Little, 70 yds missed · 14% expected
  • A. Borregales, 38 yds missed · 90% expected
  • A. Borregales, 40 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 9 for 68 yards, Jaguars 7 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Jahlani Tavai), 10 yards +1% NE +0.9 pts
Q1 14:55 Chop Block on the Jaguars (Nate Boerkircher), 6 yards, wiping out the play +3% NE +1.3 pts
Q2 13:25 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (Cameron Latu), 10 yards +3% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 11:04 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% JAX +3.8 pts
Q2 10:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Romeo Doubs), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% JAX +1.9 pts
Q2 2:47 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 5 yards +4% NE +1.0 pts
Q2 2:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Matt Dickerson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 0:49 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Gabe Jacas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.1 pts
Q2 0:49 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Elijah Ponder), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.1 pts
Q3 13:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Antonio Johnson), 15 yards +2% NE +1.8 pts
Q3 13:02 False Start on the Patriots (Cameron Latu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.5 pts
Q3 7:50 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Milton Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q3 2:16 Face Mask on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 3 yards +1% JAX +0.5 pts
Q3 1:47 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.8 pts
Q3 1:19 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NE +3.9 pts
Q4 13:32 Taunting on the Patriots (Mack Hollins), 15 yards 0% JAX +1.1 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:44 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% NE NE: Punt
2 Q1 3:58 The Patriots fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% JAX NE: Punt
3 Q1 2:24 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:13 The Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +7% NE JAX: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:04 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Romeo Doubs), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 3118 snaps before, position avg 1 per 401 +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:49 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsNeutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Gabe Jacas), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 100 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Elijah Ponder), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 714 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
8 Q3 1:19 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% NE NE: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Craig Woodson (NE S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Baringer (NE P), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dre'Mont Jones (NE LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 29
Luck in points
3.4 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 25.6
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 7% · Jaguars 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Patriots · Jaguars

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