luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Cardinals at 49ers, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Cardinals 36–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:38 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 19 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 30
San Francisco 49ers 36

September 27, 2026 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −7.5

Luck index +8 49ers about even · −8 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, 49ers win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 30 SF 24
  2. 2 ARI 41 SF 44
  3. 3 ARI 21 SF 26
  4. 4 ARI 26 SF 34
  5. 5 ARI 23 SF 34
  6. 6 ARI 20 SF 34
  7. 7 ARI 3 SF 20
  8. 8 ARI 10 SF 30
  9. 9 ARI 13 SF 38
  10. 10 ARI 13 SF 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 8% of them, 49ers 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.3%
Cardinals by 9–161.6%
Cardinals by 1–85.2%
Level after regulation1.4%
49ers by 1–818.1%
49ers by 9–1622.5%
49ers by 17+50.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was 49ers by 6, without the luck 49ers by 10.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Ryland, 26 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Ryland, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 57 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. Ryland, 49 yds made · 69% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 10 for 86 yards, 49ers 7 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:22 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 10 yards +7% SF +1.2 pts
Q1 9:18 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q1 6:26 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +3% SF +1.7 pts
Q1 0:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Jack Gibbens), 5 yards 0% SF +0.3 pts
Q2 13:28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Trey McBride), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% SF +1.7 pts
Q2 10:05 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q2 8:45 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.8 pts
Q2 7:51 Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% SF +1.1 pts
Q2 6:51 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SF +0.8 pts
Q2 0:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Fred Warner), 15 yards +4% ARI +1.8 pts
Q2 0:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Darius Robinson), 15 yards +1% SF +1.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Simi Fehoko), 15 yards +2% SF +1.4 pts
Q3 2:09 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% ARI +2.0 pts
Q4 13:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 19 yards +13% ARI +3.3 pts
Q4 9:14 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Josh Sweat), 6 yards +2% SF +1.1 pts
Q4 9:10 Illegal Formation on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 1:52 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (George Kittle), 10 yards +2% ARI +0.9 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:06 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% ARI ARI: Punt
2 Q1 10:22 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Elijah Higgins), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1683 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +7% SF SF: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:31 K. Bourne dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 163 catchable balls before this +6% SF ARI: Punt
4 Q1 8:40 The 49ers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:56 The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:41 The 49ers fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% ARI SF: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:21 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% SF ARI: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 27 flags in 5194 snaps before, position avg 1 per 241 +13% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nick Bosa (SF DL), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sam Okuayinonu (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tatum Bethune (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Romello Height (SF DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Will Johnson (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Fryar (ARI OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (ARI S), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 5% · 49ers 95%

Final margin
49ers by 6
Luck in points
4.6 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 8% · 49ers 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Cardinals · 49ers

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