luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Raiders at Saints, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Saints 35–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:03 left): the Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 16 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 35
New Orleans Saints 27

September 27, 2026 · Caesars Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +53 Raiders lucky · −53 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Saints win 5.

  1. 1 LV 38 NO 17
  2. 2 LV 17 NO 3
  3. 3 LV 29 NO 20
  4. 4 LV 33 NO 28
  5. 5 LV 19 NO 17
  6. 6 LV 17 NO 20
  7. 7 LV 10 NO 17
  8. 8 LV 10 NO 21
  9. 9 LV 9 NO 25
  10. 10 LV 6 NO 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 47% of them, Saints 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+9.4%
Raiders by 9–1614.5%
Raiders by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation5.7%
Saints by 1–820.9%
Saints by 9–1615.1%
Saints by 17+12.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.3 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 8, without the luck Saints by 2.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Gay, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Gay, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 5 for 19 yards, Saints 8 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:26 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Tre Tucker), 10 yards +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q1 3:14 Illegal Shift on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% LV +1.5 pts
Q1 0:50 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Saints (Daniel Carlson), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q2 11:58 Offensive Offside on the Raiders, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +1.0 pts
Q2 10:45 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.5 pts
Q2 6:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Jonas Sanker), 7 yards +4% LV +1.4 pts
Q2 5:54 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Danny Stutsman), 2 yards +4% LV +1.7 pts
Q2 1:05 Illegal Contact on the Saints (Quincy Riley), 5 yards 0% LV +0.4 pts
Q2 0:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Justin Reid), 7 yards +1% LV +0.6 pts
Q3 6:58 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Thomas Booker), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NO 0.0 pts
Q3 3:20 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Raiders (Matt Gay), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NO 0.0 pts
Q3 2:07 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.4 pts
Q4 1:38 Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Jeremy Chinn), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% NO +3.7 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:45 The Saints converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:15 The Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +8% LV LV: Field goal
3 Q2 1:10 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% LV LV: Field goal
4 Q3 6:40 The Raiders fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NO LV: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:04 The Saints fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LV NO: Turnover
6 Q4 9:21 The Raiders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% NO LV: Touchdown
7 Q4 8:03 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +16% LV LV: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:28 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mason Tipton (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bryan Bresee (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dillon Radunz (NO OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zach Wood (NO LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Treydan Stukes (LV S), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 41% · Saints 59%

Final margin
Raiders by 8
Luck in points
10.3 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 47% · Saints 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Raiders · Saints

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