luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

New Orleans Saints, 2026: game by game

The Saints went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–1.

Every game

How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Lions L 30–31 59% −59
Week 2 @ Ravens W 24–17 13% +87

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Saints’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
3rd & 4th downs+4.8+2.42
Judgment calls+2.2+1.09
Fumble bounces+1.6+0.79
Kicks+1.6+0.78
Injuries+0.2+0.10
Drops−0.7−0.35