Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Saints at Lions, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Saints 31–30, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Lions win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Lions.
Before kickoff the Lions were 70% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:02 left): D. Carlson missed a 62-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Lions. The biggest single swing (OT, 1:34 left): the Saints’ two-point try failed.
Final (OT)
 New Orleans Saints | 30 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +57 Lions lucky · −57 Saints
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 6, Lions win 4.
- 1 NO 27 DET 0
- 2 NO 47 DET 27
- 3 NO 44 DET 30
- 4 NO 41 DET 31
- 5 NO 29 DET 23
- 6 NO 22 DET 20
- 7 NO 31 DET 34
- 8 NO 23 DET 29
- 9 NO 16 DET 29
- 10 NO 17 DET 40
Your call
Did the Lions earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Lions by 8.3, 74% to win. The Lions won by 1: the pick was right. The final margin was 7.3 points from ours; 55% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Saints win | 25.7% |
| Lions win | 74.3% |
| Middle 50%: Saints by 1 to Lions by 17 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Saints by 13 to Lions by 29 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Saints by 17 to Lions by 34 | 95% |
| Exactly Lions by 3 | 7.9% |
| Exactly Saints by 3 | 5.9% |
| Exactly Lions by 7 | 5.7% |
| Exactly Lions by 14 | 5.2% |
| Exactly Lions by 10 | 4.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 57% of them, Lions 43%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 17.5% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 15.8% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 22.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 19.2% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 13.1% |
| Lions by 17+ | 9.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 28 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Bates, 23 yds made · 99% expected
- D. Carlson, 62 yds missed · 52% expected
Penalties: Saints 6 for 53 yards, Lions 8 for 61 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:32 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO +0.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +3% NO +1.4 pts |
| Q2 12:27 | Defensive Holding on the Saints (Christen Miller), 5 yards | +1% DET +0.5 pts |
| Q2 8:03 | Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Tyler Shough), 13 yards | +2% DET +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:21 | Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NO +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:33 | Illegal Contact on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards | +2% NO +0.2 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Lions (Jake Bates), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% NO 0.0 pts |
| Q3 0:40 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 21 yards | +6% NO +2.3 pts |
| Q4 8:58 | Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:41 | Face Mask on the Saints (Tyree Wilson), 15 yards | +4% DET +1.4 pts |
| Q4 6:56 | Low Block on the Saints (Quincy Riley), 14 yards | +2% DET +1.7 pts |
| Q4 5:25 | Defensive Offside on the Saints (Chase Young), 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.1 pts |
| Q4 4:54 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +2% NO +1.7 pts |
| OT 2:00 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Keith Abney), 5 yards | +2% NO +0.7 pts |
Saints penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:22 | The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 7:46 | The Lions fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% NO | DET: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 0:40 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Rock Ya-Sin), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 32 flags in 4375 snaps before, position avg 1 per 211 | +6% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 10:03 | The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +7% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 0:40 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +8% NO | DET: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 0:02 | The game turned hereD. Carlson missed a 62-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 58 of 79 from 45+ before | +20% DET | NO: Touchdown |
| 7 | OT 3:13 | The Saints converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +6% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 8 | OT 1:34 | The Saints’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +47% DET | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Mason Tipton (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Bryan Bresee (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Dillon Radunz (NO OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Devin Neal (NO RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 35% · Lions 65%
- Final margin
- Lions by 1
- Luck in points
- 1.1 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 57% · Lions 43% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Saints · 
Lions
More from Week 1 2026
- Patriots at Seahawks SEA 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Steelers PIT 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bills at Texans BUF 36–31 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 59–37 · replay 87% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars JAX 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 23–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bengals CIN 33–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Cardinals at Chargers ARI 26–14 · replay 51% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 · replay 46% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 27–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 24–22 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 28–20 · replay 15% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 31–10 · replay 86% for the winner