luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Saints at Lions, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Saints 31–30, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Lions win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.7 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Lions were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 3:13 left): the Saints converted 4th & 3, worth 33 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final (OT)

New Orleans Saints 30
Detroit Lions 31

September 13, 2026 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −7

Luck index +59 Lions lucky · −59 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 6, Lions win 4.

  1. 1 NO 33 DET 6
  2. 2 NO 47 DET 30
  3. 3 NO 45 DET 33
  4. 4 NO 25 DET 16
  5. 5 NO 28 DET 22
  6. 6 NO 31 DET 30
  7. 7 NO 28 DET 30
  8. 8 NO 9 DET 17
  9. 9 NO 13 DET 27
  10. 10 NO 23 DET 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 59% of them, Lions 41%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+18.5%
Saints by 9–1616.7%
Saints by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation2.3%
Lions by 1–818.3%
Lions by 9–1612.9%
Lions by 17+9.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 1.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Bates, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 62 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 10% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:22 The Lions converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q4 10:03 The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +11% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q4 0:40 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% NO DET: Punt
4 Q4 0:02 D. Carlson missed 62-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 58 of 79 from 45+ before +32% DET NO: Touchdown
5 QOT 3:49 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedThe Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NO NO: Touchdown
6 QOT 3:13 The Saints converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +33% NO NO: Touchdown
7 QOT 2:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Keith Abney), 5 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +10% NO NO: Touchdown
8 QOT 1:34 The Saints’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +30% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brian Branch (DET DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Mason Tipton (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryan Bresee (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dillon Radunz (NO OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Devin Neal (NO RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 39% · Lions 61%

Final margin
Lions by 1
Luck in points
0.4 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Saints 59% · Lions 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Saints · Lions

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