Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Bears at Panthers, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bears beat the Panthers 59–37, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:07 left): the Panthers fumbled and the Bears recovered, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 59 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 37 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Bears about even · −13 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 9, Panthers win 1.
- 1 CHI 55 CAR 19
- 2 CHI 47 CAR 20
- 3 CHI 41 CAR 20
- 4 CHI 51 CAR 34
- 5 CHI 35 CAR 21
- 6 CHI 37 CAR 27
- 7 CHI 24 CAR 17
- 8 CHI 34 CAR 29
- 9 CHI 26 CAR 24
- 10 CHI 25 CAR 34
Your call
Did the Bears earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Bears by 2.1, 56% to win. The Bears won by 22: the pick was right. The final margin was 19.9 points from ours; 12% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bears win | 56.5% |
| Panthers win | 43.5% |
| Middle 50%: Bears by 11 to Panthers by 7 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Bears by 24 to Panthers by 19 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Bears by 28 to Panthers by 24 | 95% |
| Exactly Bears by 3 | 8.6% |
| Exactly Panthers by 3 | 8.0% |
| Exactly Bears by 7 | 5.4% |
| Exactly Panthers by 7 | 4.5% |
| Exactly Bears by 10 | 3.8% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 87% of them, Panthers 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 47.3% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 21.0% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 17.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 7.4% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 40 yds made · 90% expected
- R. Fitzgerald, 44 yds made · 84% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Bears 12 for 57 yards, Panthers 11 for 84 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Rome Odunze), 10 yards | +3% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q1 12:54 | Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Dayo Odeyingbo), 1 yard | +1% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q1 12:44 | Defensive Offside on the Bears (Montez Sweat), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR 0.0 pts |
| Q1 12:29 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Darren Waller), 9 yards | +4% CHI +1.7 pts |
| Q1 10:09 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CAR +2.4 pts |
| Q1 5:52 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Bears (Cairo Santos), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR 0.0 pts |
| Q1 1:59 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Isaiah Simmons), 10 yards | +1% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:27 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Mitchell Evans), 15 yards | +2% CHI +1.2 pts |
| Q2 12:40 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bears (Skyler Thomas), 10 yards | +3% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:21 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Dayo Odeyingbo), 2 yards | +3% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:09 | Illegal Shift on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:16 | Defensive Offside on the Bears (James Lynch), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:11 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards | +4% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:55 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Colston Loveland), 10 yards | +3% CAR +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:31 | Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 10 yards | +5% CHI +1.2 pts |
| Q3 3:05 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Bears (Cairo Santos), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR 0.0 pts |
| Q3 2:33 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CHI +0.5 pts |
| Q4 12:48 | Illegal Formation on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% CAR +1.1 pts |
| Q4 7:21 | Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% CHI +2.7 pts |
| Q4 4:38 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jalen Coker), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% CHI +2.3 pts |
| Q4 3:52 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Trevis Gipson), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI +1.0 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:35 | The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +9% CAR | CHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 7:51 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +6% CAR | CHI: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 7:07 | The Panthers fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% CHI | CAR: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 1:17 | The Bears converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:11 | The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws | +6% CHI | CAR: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 8:21 | The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 0:58 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +6% CHI | CAR: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 0:55 | The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% CHI | CAR: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ikem Ekwonu (CAR T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Taylor Moton (CAR T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
- Tershawn Wharton (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Nic Scourton (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Ozzy Trapilo (CHI OL), out · 0.3 pts
- Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 99% · Panthers 1%
- Final margin
- Bears by 22
- Luck in points
- 9.5 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 12.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 87% · Panthers 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Bears · 
Panthers
More from Week 1 2026
- Patriots at Seahawks SEA 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Steelers PIT 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bills at Texans BUF 36–31 · replay 87% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars JAX 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Saints at Lions DET 31–30 · replay 43% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 23–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bengals CIN 33–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Cardinals at Chargers ARI 26–14 · replay 51% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 · replay 46% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 27–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 24–22 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 28–20 · replay 15% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 31–10 · replay 86% for the winner