luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Bears at Panthers, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Panthers 59–37 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:07 left): the Panthers fumbled and the Bears recovered, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 59
Carolina Panthers 37

September 13, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Bears −3

Luck index +25 Bears about even · −25 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 CHI 39 CAR 3
  2. 2 CHI 45 CAR 20
  3. 3 CHI 46 CAR 27
  4. 4 CHI 41 CAR 26
  5. 5 CHI 41 CAR 30
  6. 6 CHI 24 CAR 16
  7. 7 CHI 46 CAR 41
  8. 8 CHI 33 CAR 31
  9. 9 CHI 27 CAR 30
  10. 10 CHI 30 CAR 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 75% of them, Panthers 25%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+33.1%
Bears by 9–1619.0%
Bears by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation1.7%
Panthers by 1–812.6%
Panthers by 9–167.3%
Panthers by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 10.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:03 The Bears converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% CHI CHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:35 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +9% CAR CHI: Punt
3 Q2 7:51 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +6% CAR CHI: Punt
4 Q2 7:07 The Panthers fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CHI CAR: Field goal
5 Q2 1:17 The Bears converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% CHI CHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:11 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% CHI CAR: Punt
7 Q3 8:21 The Bears converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% CHI CHI: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:58 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% CHI CAR: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ikem Ekwonu (CAR T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Taylor Moton (CAR T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tershawn Wharton (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nic Scourton (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ozzy Trapilo (CHI OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 97% · Panthers 3%

Final margin
Bears by 22
Luck in points
11.7 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Bears 75% · Panthers 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Bears · Panthers

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