luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 10, 2026

49ers vs Rams, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Rams 27–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.2 points to the Rams.

An off day for the Rams: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:26 left): the Rams were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 8 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 27
Los Angeles Rams 7

September 10, 2026 · Melbourne Cricket Ground · Closing line: Rams −3.5

Luck index +11 49ers about even · −11 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 9, Rams win 1.

  1. 1 SF 38 LA 7
  2. 2 SF 41 LA 17
  3. 3 SF 34 LA 14
  4. 4 SF 27 LA 10
  5. 5 SF 23 LA 10
  6. 6 SF 26 LA 16
  7. 7 SF 20 LA 13
  8. 8 SF 24 LA 20
  9. 9 SF 15 LA 13
  10. 10 SF 13 LA 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Rams

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.

41 points apart for the Rams: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
49ers offenseEPA per play gained +0.35 +0.15 better by 0.20
49ers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.00 +0.12 better by 0.12
Rams offenseEPA per play gained +0.00 +0.19 worse by 0.19
Rams defenseEPA per play allowed +0.35 +0.09 worse by 0.26

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 89% of them, Rams 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+47.1%
49ers by 9–1623.2%
49ers by 1–818.2%
Level after regulation2.1%
Rams by 1–86.8%
Rams by 9–162.1%
Rams by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 22.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 56 yds made · 71% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 52 yds missed · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:17 E. Pineiro made 20-yard field goalKicks · 100% expected for him +6% LA SF: Punt
2 Q2 8:58 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% SF LA: Punt
3 Q2 6:55 The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% SF SF: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:10 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% SF SF: Punt
5 Q2 0:32 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedM. Evans dropped a catchable passDrops · 17 drops on 328 catchable balls before this +7% LA SF: Punt
6 Q3 11:03 The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LA LA: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 4:26 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% SF LA: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 3:46 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% SF LA: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sam Okuayinonu (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tatum Bethune (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 100% · Rams 0%

Final margin
49ers by 20
Luck in points
2.2 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 22.2
Replay with same day's form
49ers 89% · Rams 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 49ers · Rams

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