Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Cowboys at Giants, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Giants beat the Cowboys 28–20, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Giants.
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:50 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Giants.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 20 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +85 Giants very lucky · −85 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 8, Giants win 2.
- 1 DAL 27 NYG 3
- 2 DAL 24 NYG 6
- 3 DAL 27 NYG 13
- 4 DAL 21 NYG 10
- 5 DAL 23 NYG 14
- 6 DAL 20 NYG 14
- 7 DAL 20 NYG 16
- 8 DAL 17 NYG 15
- 9 DAL 17 NYG 20
- 10 DAL 7 NYG 19
Your call
Did the Giants earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Giants by 0.7, 52% to win. The Giants won by 8: the pick was right. The final margin was 7.3 points from ours; 56% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cowboys win | 47.9% |
| Giants win | 52.1% |
| Middle 50%: Cowboys by 8 to Giants by 10 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Cowboys by 21 to Giants by 22 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Cowboys by 24 to Giants by 26 | 95% |
| Exactly Giants by 3 | 8.5% |
| Exactly Cowboys by 3 | 8.3% |
| Exactly Giants by 7 | 5.1% |
| Exactly Cowboys by 7 | 4.8% |
| Exactly Giants by 10 | 3.5% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 85% of them, Giants 15%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 26.3% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 24.6% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 31.9% |
| Level after regulation | 3.2% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 9.4% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 3.9% |
| Giants by 17+ | 0.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Cowboys 9 for 90 yards, Giants 10 for 114 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:18 | Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 4 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q1 10:09 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Quinnen Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.2 pts |
| Q1 9:38 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (DeMarvion Overshown), 15 yards | +5% NYG +1.8 pts |
| Q1 6:40 | Low Block on the Cowboys (Jonathan Mingo), 11 yards | +2% NYG +1.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Jaishawn Barham), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:45 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:25 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Luke Schoonmaker), 10 yards | +4% NYG +2.0 pts |
| Q2 9:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Greg Newsome II), 38 yards | +8% DAL +3.9 pts |
| Q2 7:50 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% NYG +2.2 pts |
| Q2 6:45 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 19 yards | +6% DAL +1.9 pts |
| Q2 5:44 | Offensive Holding on the Giants (Elijah Campbell), 10 yards | +1% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:40 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 11 yards | +1% DAL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:28 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 1 yard | +2% DAL +0.1 pts |
| Q4 9:02 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 5:42 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Jevon Holland), 15 yards | +2% DAL +1.8 pts |
| Q4 5:26 | Taunting on the Cowboys (Javonte Williams), 15 yards | +1% NYG +1.1 pts |
| Q4 3:01 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:10 | Face Mask on the Cowboys (Donovan Ezeiruaku), 15 yards | +1% NYG +1.7 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:11 | G. Pickens dropped a catchable passDrops · 17 drops on 319 catchable balls before this | +5% NYG | DAL: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 9:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Greg Newsome II), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 4061 snaps before, position avg 1 per 211 | +8% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:50 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% NYG | NYG: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 6:45 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Andru Phillips), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1373 snaps before, position avg 1 per 211 | +6% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 4:14 | The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% NYG | NYG: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 2:36 | The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% NYG | NYG: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 2:00 | The Giants fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% DAL | NYG: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:40 | The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedFalse Start on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Roy Robertson-Harris (NYG DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tyler Smith (DAL OL), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 59% · Giants 41%
- Final margin
- Giants by 8
- Luck in points
- 10.0 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 85% · Giants 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Cowboys · 
Giants
More from Week 1 2026
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- Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bills at Texans BUF 36–31 · replay 87% for the winner
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- Jets at Titans NYJ 23–10 · replay 73% for the winner
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- Cardinals at Chargers ARI 26–14 · replay 51% for the winner
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