luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Cowboys at Giants, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Giants stole one. They beat the Cowboys 28–20, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Giants.

The Giants won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:58 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 20
New York Giants 28

September 13, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3

Luck index +85 Giants very lucky · −85 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 35 NYG 10
  2. 2 DAL 34 NYG 14
  3. 3 DAL 31 NYG 16
  4. 4 DAL 20 NYG 7
  5. 5 DAL 13 NYG 3
  6. 6 DAL 16 NYG 7
  7. 7 DAL 6 NYG 0
  8. 8 DAL 13 NYG 10
  9. 9 DAL 16 NYG 14
  10. 10 DAL 21 NYG 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Giants won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

31 points apart for the Giants: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.23 +0.16 better by 0.07
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.46 +0.19 worse by 0.27
Giants offenseEPA per play gained +0.46 +0.07 better by 0.39
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.23 +0.13 worse by 0.09

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 85% of them, Giants 15%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+26.6%
Cowboys by 9–1626.6%
Cowboys by 1–830.9%
Level after regulation2.9%
Giants by 1–89.3%
Giants by 9–162.9%
Giants by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 1.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:11 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedG. Pickens dropped a catchable passDrops · 17 drops on 319 catchable balls before this +7% NYG DAL: Punt
2 Q2 9:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Greg Newsome II), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 4061 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:50 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% NYG NYG: Turnover
4 Q2 4:14 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% NYG NYG: Turnover
5 Q2 2:36 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG NYG: Turnover
6 Q2 1:24 G. Pickens dropped a catchable passDrops · 18 drops on 320 catchable balls before this +6% NYG DAL: Turnover
7 Q2 0:58 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% NYG DAL: End of half
8 Q2 0:40 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedFalse Start on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% NYG NYG: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Roy Robertson-Harris (NYG DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyler Smith (DAL OL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 55% · Giants 45%

Final margin
Giants by 8
Luck in points
9.8 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 85% · Giants 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Cowboys · Giants

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