Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Ravens at Colts, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Colts 41–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 41 |
|---|---|
 Indianapolis Colts | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Ravens about even · −13 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Colts win 1.
- 1 BAL 63 IND 30
- 2 BAL 37 IND 10
- 3 BAL 42 IND 19
- 4 BAL 48 IND 28
- 5 BAL 40 IND 23
- 6 BAL 47 IND 34
- 7 BAL 28 IND 19
- 8 BAL 22 IND 16
- 9 BAL 33 IND 31
- 10 BAL 28 IND 34
Your call
Did the Ravens earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Colts by 1.3, 54% to win. The Ravens won by 18, a result we gave 46%. The final margin was 19.3 points from ours; 13% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ravens win | 46.0% |
| Colts win | 54.0% |
| Middle 50%: Ravens by 7 to Colts by 10 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Ravens by 20 to Colts by 23 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Ravens by 24 to Colts by 27 | 95% |
| Exactly Colts by 3 | 8.5% |
| Exactly Ravens by 3 | 8.2% |
| Exactly Colts by 7 | 5.2% |
| Exactly Ravens by 7 | 4.7% |
| Exactly Colts by 10 | 3.7% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 87% of them, Colts 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 48.8% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 20.4% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Colts by 17+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- T. Loop, 57 yds made · 64% expected
- S. Shrader, 58 yds made · 65% expected
- T. Loop, 45 yds made · 82% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Ravens 10 for 86 yards, Colts 4 for 29 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:25 | False Start on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% IND +0.8 pts |
| Q1 6:20 | Chop Block on the Ravens, 15 yards | +5% IND +3.0 pts |
| Q1 4:05 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (Adetomiwa Adebawore), 10 yards | +1% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:58 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:00 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% IND +3.0 pts |
| Q2 8:30 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +2% IND +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:04 | Offensive Holding on the Colts (Laquon Treadwell), 10 yards | +1% BAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:57 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% IND +2.8 pts |
| Q3 14:08 | Illegal Shift on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% IND +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:55 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens (Ethan Burke), 10 yards | 0% IND +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:55 | False Start on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:31 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 4 yards | +1% BAL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 12:42 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Malaki Starks), 11 yards | 0% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:27 | Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.5 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Colts’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:10 | The Colts converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +5% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:37 | The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% IND | IND: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:38 | The Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +5% BAL | IND: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:20 | Chop Block on the Ravens, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% IND | IND: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 5:54 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +6% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 0:38 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% BAL | BAL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 13:00 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% IND | IND: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 1:57 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% IND | IND: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Teddye Buchanan (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 100% · Colts 0%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 18
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for the Ravens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 17.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 87% · Colts 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Ravens · 
Colts
More from Week 1 2026
- Patriots at Seahawks SEA 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Steelers PIT 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Bills at Texans BUF 36–31 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 59–37 · replay 87% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars JAX 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Saints at Lions DET 31–30 · replay 43% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 23–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bengals CIN 33–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Cardinals at Chargers ARI 26–14 · replay 51% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 · replay 46% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 27–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 24–22 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 28–20 · replay 15% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 31–10 · replay 86% for the winner