2026 season · in progress
Indianapolis Colts, 2026: game by game
The Colts went 2–7 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.2 wins. Luck cost them 0.2: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–4.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Ravens | L 23–41 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 2 | @ Chiefs | L 30–33 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 3 | vs Texans | W 19–17 | 25% | +75 |
| Week 4 | vs Commanders | W 30–13 | 26% | +74 |
| Week 5 | @ Steelers | L 22–34 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 6 | vs Titans | L 20–26 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 7 | @ Vikings | L 10–16 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 8 | @ Jaguars | L 7–42 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 9 | vs Cowboys | L 23–27 | 19% | −19 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Colts win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 · Nov 15 | vs Dolphins |  Colts by 3.2 | 60% |
| Week 11 · Nov 19 | at Texans |  Texans by 7.2 | 29% |
| Week 12 · Nov 29 | vs Giants |  Giants by 0.6 | 48% |
| Week 14 · Dec 13 | at Eagles |  Eagles by 2.8 | 42% |
| Week 15 · Dec 20 | at Titans | Colts by 0.7 | 52% |
| Week 16 · Dec 27 | vs Bengals |  Bengals by 5.1 | 35% |
| Week 17 · Jan 3 | at Browns |  Browns by 3.2 | 40% |
| Week 18 · Jan 10 | vs Jaguars |  Jaguars by 8.1 | 27% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Colts’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.64 | +8.7 |
| Judgment calls | +0.44 | +17.1 |
| Drops | +0.13 | +5.3 |
| Injuries | +0.10 | +3.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.02 | +3.9 |
| Rest | −0.07 | −3.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.29 | −6.5 |