luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Colts?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.25 points a game to the Colts since 2019, 13th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +0.64 points a game over 1 game, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Colts minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262+7.45 2nd411 –
202517−0.56 23rd6764 –
202417+0.58 10th5153 –
202317+0.28 16th5054 –
202217−0.75 23rd6055 –
202117+1.39 6th4764 –
202016−1.59 30th6756 +0.64 (1)
201916+1.52 5th5975 –

Biggest calls for the Colts

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Steven Nelson), 9 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 16 · 46 pts of win probability
  2. Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 15 yards · 2025 Week 10 · 33 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (D.J. Hayden), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 1 · 31 pts of win probability
  4. Leverage on the Broncos (Dondrea Tillman), 15 yards · 2025 Week 2 · 23 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Packers (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 11 · 21 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Illegal Contact on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 7 · 61 pts of win probability
  2. Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 15 yards · 2022 Week 3 · 28 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Holding on the Colts (Zach Pascal), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 11 · 26 pts of win probability
  4. Defensive Holding on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2024 Week 1 · 24 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Jaylon Jones), 12 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 17 · 20 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Colts?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.25 points a game to the Colts since 2019, 13th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: +0.64 points a game over 1 game, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Indianapolis Colts, every season