luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Steelers, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Colts 28–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.4 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:55 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Steven Nelson), 9 yards, wiping out the play, worth 46 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 24
Pittsburgh Steelers 28

December 27, 2020 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Colts −1

Luck index +47 Steelers lucky · −47 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 5, Steelers win 5.

  1. 1 IND 44 PIT 20
  2. 2 IND 32 PIT 17
  3. 3 IND 23 PIT 14
  4. 4 IND 40 PIT 35
  5. 5 IND 37 PIT 35
  6. 6 IND 37 PIT 40
  7. 7 IND 40 PIT 47
  8. 8 IND 15 PIT 27
  9. 9 IND 13 PIT 30
  10. 10 IND 19 PIT 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 47% of them, Steelers 53%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+11.3%
Colts by 9–1613.1%
Colts by 1–821.4%
Level after regulation4.9%
Steelers by 1–820.9%
Steelers by 9–1614.9%
Steelers by 17+13.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 1.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:06 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:46 The Colts fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% PIT IND: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:23 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% PIT PIT: End of half
4 Q4 12:57 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% PIT IND: Punt
5 Q4 8:19 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Steven Nelson), 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1912 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +46% IND IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:39 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +13% IND IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:19 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +20% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Feiler (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Boswell (PIT K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Spillane (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Feiler (PIT OT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Anthony Castonzo (IND T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T/G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 55% · Steelers 45%

Final margin
Steelers by 4
Luck in points
5.0 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Colts 47% · Steelers 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Colts · Steelers

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