luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 25, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Saints, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Vikings 52–33, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 10 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.0 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Saints were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:53 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 6, worth 9 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 33
New Orleans Saints 52

December 25, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −6.5

Luck index +4 Saints about even · −4 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 0, Saints win 10.

  1. 1 MIN 48 NO 51
  2. 2 MIN 31 NO 36
  3. 3 MIN 35 NO 45
  4. 4 MIN 34 NO 47
  5. 5 MIN 28 NO 43
  6. 6 MIN 16 NO 35
  7. 7 MIN 24 NO 47
  8. 8 MIN 20 NO 46
  9. 9 MIN 29 NO 59
  10. 10 MIN 6 NO 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 4% of them, Saints 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+0.3%
Vikings by 9–160.7%
Vikings by 1–82.5%
Level after regulation0.5%
Saints by 1–88.2%
Saints by 9–1618.0%
Saints by 17+69.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 19. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 20.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:06 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 7:42 Illegal Formation on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +5% MIN MIN: Punt
3 Q2 5:10 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% MIN NO: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:59 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% NO MIN: Punt
5 Q3 8:40 The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:17 Roughing the Passer on the Saints, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Malcolm Jenkins), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2175 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 14:53 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (NO DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marcus Williams (NO S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G/T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Easton (NO C/G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kyle Rudolph (MIN TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Eric Kendricks (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalyn Holmes (MIN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kris Boyd (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 19
Luck in points
1.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 20.2
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 4% · Saints 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Vikings · Saints

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