luckadjusted

Week 16 2020 · December 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 16 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 37–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Eagles: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:56 left): G. Zuerlein made 20-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 17
Dallas Cowboys 37

December 27, 2020 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −3

Luck index +14 Cowboys about even · −14 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 PHI 35 DAL 26
  2. 2 PHI 52 DAL 54
  3. 3 PHI 39 DAL 44
  4. 4 PHI 15 DAL 23
  5. 5 PHI 28 DAL 41
  6. 6 PHI 26 DAL 42
  7. 7 PHI 17 DAL 35
  8. 8 PHI 21 DAL 43
  9. 9 PHI 10 DAL 37
  10. 10 PHI 24 DAL 61

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Eagles

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.

33 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.04 worse by 0.02
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.31 +0.12 worse by 0.19
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.31 +0.12 better by 0.19
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.15 better by 0.13

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 14% of them, Cowboys 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+1.4%
Eagles by 9–163.8%
Eagles by 1–88.0%
Level after regulation1.9%
Cowboys by 1–816.8%
Cowboys by 9–1619.9%
Cowboys by 17+48.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 19.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 21 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles, 26 yardsJudgment calls +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 1:37 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:31 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% DAL PHI: Punt
4 Q2 5:56 G. Zuerlein made 20-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +11% PHI DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:58 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% PHI PHI: Field goal
6 Q2 3:51 The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +5% PHI PHI: Field goal
7 Q2 2:18 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% DAL PHI: Field goal
8 Q3 12:35 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Cameron Erving (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Xavier Woods (DAL S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashard Robinson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Erving (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Antwaun Woods (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rodney McLeod (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kevon Seymour (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Duke Riley (PHI LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 20
Luck in points
0.3 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 19.7
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 14% · Cowboys 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2020 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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