2020 season · final

Philadelphia Eagles, 2020: game by game

The Eagles went 4–11–1 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.4: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5–1.

Every game

How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Washington	L 17–27	58%	−58
Week 2	vs Rams	L 19–37	10%	−10
Week 3	vs Bengals	T 23–23	47%	+3
Week 4	@ 49ers	W 25–20	13%	+87
Week 5	@ Steelers	L 29–38	28%	−28
Week 6	vs Ravens	L 28–30	35%	−35
Week 7	vs Giants	W 22–21	82%	+18
Week 8	vs Cowboys	W 23–9	61%	+39
Week 10	@ Giants	L 17–27	16%	−16
Week 11	@ Browns	L 17–22	29%	−29
Week 12	vs Seahawks	L 17–23	8%	−8
Week 13	@ Packers	L 16–30	10%	−10
Week 14	vs Saints	W 24–21	31%	+69
Week 15	@ Cardinals	L 26–33	15%	−15
Week 16	@ Cowboys	L 17–37	14%	−14
Week 17	vs Washington	L 14–20	37%	−37

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −58 @ WAS

Wk 2 −10 vs LA

Wk 3 +3 vs CIN

Wk 4 +87 @ SF

Wk 5 −28 @ PIT

Wk 6 −35 vs BAL

Wk 7 +18 vs NYG

Wk 8 +39 vs DAL

Wk 10 −16 @ NYG

Wk 11 −29 @ CLE

Wk 12 −8 vs SEA

Wk 13 −10 @ GB

Wk 14 +69 vs NO

Wk 15 −15 @ ARI

Wk 16 −14 @ DAL

Wk 17 −37 vs WAS

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+36.0	+2.25
Fumble bounces	+17.3	+1.08
Rest	−0.8	−0.05
3rd & 4th downs	−1.7	−0.11
Injuries	−5.2	−0.32
Kicks	−11.5	−0.72