2020 season · final

Philadelphia Eagles, 2020: game by game

The Eagles went 4–11–1 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.4: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–5–1.

Every game

How often the Eagles win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Washington	L 17–27	60%	−60
Week 2	vs Rams	L 19–37	8%	−8
Week 3	vs Bengals	T 23–23	47%	+3
Week 4	@ 49ers	W 25–20	12%	+88
Week 5	@ Steelers	L 29–38	28%	−28
Week 6	vs Ravens	L 28–30	35%	−35
Week 7	vs Giants	W 22–21	81%	+19
Week 8	vs Cowboys	W 23–9	64%	+36
Week 10	@ Giants	L 17–27	16%	−16
Week 11	@ Browns	L 17–22	26%	−26
Week 12	vs Seahawks	L 17–23	8%	−8
Week 13	@ Packers	L 16–30	10%	−10
Week 14	vs Saints	W 24–21	29%	+71
Week 15	@ Cardinals	L 26–33	15%	−15
Week 16	@ Cowboys	L 17–37	14%	−14
Week 17	vs Washington	L 14–20	38%	−38

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −60 @ WAS

Wk 2 −8 vs LA

Wk 3 +3 vs CIN

Wk 4 +88 @ SF

Wk 5 −28 @ PIT

Wk 6 −35 vs BAL

Wk 7 +19 vs NYG

Wk 8 +36 vs DAL

Wk 10 −16 @ NYG

Wk 11 −26 @ CLE

Wk 12 −8 vs SEA

Wk 13 −10 @ GB

Wk 14 +71 vs NO

Wk 15 −15 @ ARI

Wk 16 −14 @ DAL

Wk 17 −38 vs WAS

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Eagles’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.92	+22.6
Judgment calls	+0.57	+16.5
Injuries	−0.12	−3.9
Kicks	−0.33	−11.1
3rd & 4th downs	−0.43	−0.1