luckadjusted

Week 7 2020 · October 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Eagles, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 22–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.6 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:11 left): the Eagles were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 19 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 21
Philadelphia Eagles 22

October 22, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −5

Luck index +18 Eagles about even · −18 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Eagles win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 40 PHI 26
  2. 2 NYG 23 PHI 20
  3. 3 NYG 43 PHI 45
  4. 4 NYG 15 PHI 20
  5. 5 NYG 31 PHI 40
  6. 6 NYG 17 PHI 29
  7. 7 NYG 14 PHI 30
  8. 8 NYG 16 PHI 34
  9. 9 NYG 22 PHI 45
  10. 10 NYG 3 PHI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 18% of them, Eagles 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.9%
Giants by 9–164.8%
Giants by 1–810.0%
Level after regulation1.3%
Eagles by 1–819.3%
Eagles by 9–1621.4%
Eagles by 17+41.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 9.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Elliott, 29 yds missed · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:10 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +11% PHI NYG: Punt
2 Q2 0:17 J. Elliott missed 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +10% NYG PHI: Punt
3 Q4 14:11 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +19% NYG PHI: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:09 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Giants (Corey Ballentine), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 615 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (James Bradberry), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1560 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:51 Face Mask on the Eagles, 15 yardsJudgment calls +12% NYG NYG: Turnover
7 Q4 0:40 The Eagles’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% PHI PHI: End of game
8 Q4 0:29 The Giants fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Ertz (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Reagor (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malik Jackson (PHI DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tae Crowder (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 21% · Eagles 79%

Final margin
Eagles by 1
Luck in points
8.0 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 9.0
Replay with same day's form
Giants 18% · Eagles 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Giants · Eagles

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