luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2020 · October 22, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Eagles, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 22–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:11 left): the Eagles were stopped on 4th & 3, worth 19 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 21
Philadelphia Eagles 22

October 22, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −5

Luck index +19 Eagles about even · −19 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Eagles win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 26 PHI 13
  2. 2 NYG 27 PHI 23
  3. 3 NYG 31 PHI 33
  4. 4 NYG 22 PHI 27
  5. 5 NYG 14 PHI 23
  6. 6 NYG 19 PHI 31
  7. 7 NYG 13 PHI 27
  8. 8 NYG 24 PHI 42
  9. 9 NYG 20 PHI 43
  10. 10 NYG 14 PHI 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 19% of them, Eagles 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+2.5%
Giants by 9–165.5%
Giants by 1–89.8%
Level after regulation1.4%
Eagles by 1–819.6%
Eagles by 9–1621.4%
Eagles by 17+39.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Giants: the final margin was Eagles by 1, without the luck Eagles by 6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Elliott, 29 yds missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 9 for 62 yards, Eagles 7 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:38 Illegal Formation on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 9:46 Encroachment on the Giants (Dalvin Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.6 pts
Q1 8:04 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 5 yards +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q1 7:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Kaden Smith), 10 yards +4% PHI +1.6 pts
Q1 2:05 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +5% NYG +1.3 pts
Q1 0:20 Intentional Grounding on the Eagles (Carson Wentz), 16 yards +5% NYG +1.5 pts
Q3 6:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles, 2 yards +6% NYG +1.7 pts
Q4 10:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles, 22 yards +8% NYG +2.2 pts
Q4 6:05 Illegal Contact on the Giants, 5 yards +2% PHI +1.3 pts
Q4 5:12 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.3 pts
Q4 4:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants, 1 yard +1% PHI +0.1 pts
Q4 2:09 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Giants (Corey Ballentine), 15 yards +10% PHI +1.4 pts
Q4 1:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (James Bradberry), 9 yards +11% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 0:57 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Logan Ryan), 2 yards +10% PHI +1.9 pts
Q4 0:51 Face Mask on the Eagles, 15 yards +12% NYG +2.4 pts
Q4 0:40 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +26% PHI +0.9 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:17 J. Elliott missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +10% NYG PHI: Punt
2 Q4 14:11 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +19% NYG PHI: Touchdown
3 Q4 2:09 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Giants (Corey Ballentine), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 615 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (James Bradberry), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1560 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:57 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Logan Ryan), 2 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1726 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:51 Face Mask on the Eagles, 15 yardsJudgment calls +12% NYG NYG: Turnover
7 Q4 0:40 The Eagles’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% PHI PHI: End of game
8 Q4 0:29 The Giants fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% PHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Ertz (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Reagor (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malik Jackson (PHI DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tae Crowder (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 23% · Eagles 77%

Final margin
Eagles by 1
Luck in points
5.0 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 6.0
Replay with same day's form
Giants 19% · Eagles 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Giants · Eagles

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