luckadjusted

Week 7 2020 · October 25, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Titans, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Titans 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:05 left): the Titans converted 3rd & 12, worth 25 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 27
Tennessee Titans 24

October 25, 2020 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −1

Luck index +37 Steelers lucky · −37 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 6, Titans win 4.

  1. 1 PIT 40 TEN 17
  2. 2 PIT 23 TEN 7
  3. 3 PIT 27 TEN 16
  4. 4 PIT 30 TEN 23
  5. 5 PIT 27 TEN 24
  6. 6 PIT 17 TEN 16
  7. 7 PIT 21 TEN 23
  8. 8 PIT 32 TEN 37
  9. 9 PIT 10 TEN 21
  10. 10 PIT 20 TEN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 63% of them, Titans 37%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+15.6%
Steelers by 9–1616.6%
Steelers by 1–827.9%
Level after regulation2.9%
Titans by 1–819.1%
Titans by 9–1611.6%
Titans by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 45 yds missed · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 10:46 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +11% PIT TEN: Touchdown
2 Q4 10:19 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 0 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1443 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +11% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q4 2:40 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +21% TEN PIT: End of game
4 Q4 1:40 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +11% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
5 Q4 1:05 The Titans converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +25% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
6 Q4 1:00 Intentional Grounding on the Titans (Ryan Tannehill), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1173 snaps before, position avg 1 per 669 +10% PIT PIT: End of game
7 Q4 0:24 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% PIT TEN: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:19 S. Gostkowski missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 6 of 8 from 45+ before +20% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Mike Hilton (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 25% · Titans 75%

Final margin
Steelers by 3
Luck in points
8.3 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 63% · Titans 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Steelers · Titans

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