luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2020 · October 25, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Seahawks 37–34, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 2:47 left): Z. Gonzalez missed a 41-yard field goal, worth 25 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final (OT)

Seattle Seahawks 34
Arizona Cardinals 37

October 25, 2020 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −3.5

Luck index +87 Cardinals very lucky · −87 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Cardinals win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 51 ARI 16
  2. 2 SEA 69 ARI 43
  3. 3 SEA 38 ARI 16
  4. 4 SEA 36 ARI 17
  5. 5 SEA 42 ARI 26
  6. 6 SEA 41 ARI 29
  7. 7 SEA 29 ARI 21
  8. 8 SEA 51 ARI 47
  9. 9 SEA 40 ARI 38
  10. 10 SEA 38 ARI 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 87% of them, Cardinals 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+49.1%
Seahawks by 9–1619.4%
Seahawks by 1–816.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Cardinals by 1–87.7%
Cardinals by 9–163.6%
Cardinals by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Cardinals by 3, without the luck Cardinals by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 49 yds made · 74% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 41 yds missed · 88% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 48 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 8 for 78 yards, Cardinals 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:53 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q1 9:45 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q1 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks, 8 yards +4% ARI +1.3 pts
Q1 2:39 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Zach Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.4 pts
Q2 11:47 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Darrell Daniels), 10 yards +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 0:59 Tripping on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% ARI +1.6 pts
Q3 7:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Bobby Wagner), 15 yards +3% ARI +2.2 pts
Q3 6:01 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% SEA +1.1 pts
Q3 2:59 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q4 8:10 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Corey Peters), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 3:22 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q4 3:02 Leverage on the Seahawks, 15 yards +6% ARI +3.1 pts
OT 6:23 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% ARI +0.7 pts
OT 1:13 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (David Moore), 10 yards +15% ARI +0.8 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:53 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% SEA ARI: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:04 Z. Gonzalez made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 9 of 13 from 45+ before +8% ARI ARI: Punt
3 OT 8:32 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +21% SEA SEA: Punt
4 OT 6:23 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedFalse Start on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +18% ARI SEA: Punt
5 OT 2:47 Z. Gonzalez missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +25% SEA ARI: Field goal
6 OT 1:13 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedOffensive Holding on the Seahawks (David Moore), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 681 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +21% ARI SEA: Turnover
7 OT 0:25 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +9% ARI ARI: Field goal
8 OT 0:20 Z. Gonzalez made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 10 of 14 from 45+ before +23% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • J.R. Sweezy (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • J.R. Sweezy (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Iupati (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bruce Irvin (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 31% · Cardinals 69%

Final margin
Cardinals by 3
Luck in points
1.8 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 87% · Cardinals 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Seahawks · Cardinals

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