luckadjusted

2020 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2020: game by game

The Seahawks went 12–4 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.1 wins. Luck added 1.9: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 8–3.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.4.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Falcons W 38–25 34% +66
Week 2 vs Patriots W 35–30 56% +44
Week 3 vs Cowboys W 38–31 34% +66
Week 4 @ Dolphins W 31–23 82% +18
Week 5 vs Vikings W 27–26 80% +20
Week 7 @ Cardinals L 34–37 86% −86
Week 8 vs 49ers W 37–27 59% +41
Week 9 @ Bills L 34–44 26% −26
Week 10 @ Rams L 16–23 40% −40
Week 11 vs Cardinals W 28–21 43% +57
Week 12 @ Eagles W 23–17 92% +8
Week 13 vs Giants L 12–17 46% −46
Week 14 vs Jets W 40–3 99% +1
Week 15 @ Washington W 20–15 91% +9
Week 16 vs Rams W 20–9 61% +39
Week 17 @ 49ers W 26–23 76% +24
Wild Card vs Rams L 20–30 37% −37

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Kicks+20.7+1.29
Judgment calls+11.9+0.74
Fumble bounces+6.3+0.39
Injuries+3.0+0.19
Rest−0.4−0.02
3rd & 4th downs−2.8−0.17