luckadjusted

Week 15 2020 · December 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Washington, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat Washington 20–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. Washington had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.6 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:32 left): Defensive Offside on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 20
Washington Football Team 15

December 20, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Seahawks −6

Luck index +9 Seahawks about even · −9 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Washington win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 40 WAS 10
  2. 2 SEA 40 WAS 17
  3. 3 SEA 29 WAS 10
  4. 4 SEA 30 WAS 14
  5. 5 SEA 23 WAS 10
  6. 6 SEA 23 WAS 13
  7. 7 SEA 21 WAS 13
  8. 8 SEA 32 WAS 27
  9. 9 SEA 13 WAS 10
  10. 10 SEA 30 WAS 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 91% of them, Washington 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+50.9%
Seahawks by 9–1622.1%
Seahawks by 1–817.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Washington by 1–85.5%
Washington by 9–161.9%
Washington by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 11.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Myers, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds made · 72% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:37 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% SEA SEA: Field goal
2 Q1 10:04 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% WAS WAS: Punt
3 Q2 12:32 Defensive Offside on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 1241 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +18% WAS SEA: Field goal
4 Q4 5:51 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% WAS SEA: Punt
5 Q4 3:39 Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 2:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (K.J. Wright), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2089 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +11% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:08 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% SEA WAS: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:03 Washington were stopped on 4th & 243rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +16% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Deshazor Everett (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Alex Smith (WAS QB), out, replaced by d.haskins · 0.2 pts
  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Greg Olsen (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tre Flowers (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 96% · Washington 4%

Final margin
Seahawks by 5
Luck in points
6.9 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 11.9
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 91% · Washington 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · Seahawks · Washington

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