luckadjusted

Week 15 2020 · December 19, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Packers, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Panthers 24–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:55 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 1, worth 8 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 16
Green Bay Packers 24

December 19, 2020 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −9.5

Luck index +19 Packers about even · −19 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 2, Packers win 8.

  1. 1 CAR 36 GB 24
  2. 2 CAR 26 GB 23
  3. 3 CAR 21 GB 23
  4. 4 CAR 30 GB 34
  5. 5 CAR 13 GB 21
  6. 6 CAR 13 GB 24
  7. 7 CAR 17 GB 31
  8. 8 CAR 12 GB 31
  9. 9 CAR 10 GB 34
  10. 10 CAR 12 GB 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 19% of them, Packers 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+2.1%
Panthers by 9–165.3%
Panthers by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Packers by 1–827.5%
Packers by 9–1621.6%
Packers by 17+30.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Slye, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Crosby, 51 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Slye, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:55 The Packers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Troy Pride Jr.), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 651 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +6% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:15 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:43 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Packers (Kevin King), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1413 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
5 Q2 8:06 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% CAR CAR: Turnover
6 Q2 7:39 The Panthers fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% GB CAR: Punt
7 Q4 9:36 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% CAR GB: Field goal
8 Q4 0:24 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Za'Darius Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 12 flags in 1778 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +8% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Corey Linsley (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Jackson (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Raven Greene (GB S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Russell Okung (CAR T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Stephen Weatherly (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 15% · Packers 85%

Final margin
Packers by 8
Luck in points
1.6 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 19% · Packers 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · Panthers · Packers

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