Week 15 2020 · December 20, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Lions at Titans, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Lions 46–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Titans were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:46 left): the Titans converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 Detroit Lions | 25 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 46 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Titans about even · −17 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lions win 2, Titans win 8.
- 1 DET 29 TEN 17
- 2 DET 30 TEN 27
- 3 DET 24 TEN 27
- 4 DET 24 TEN 30
- 5 DET 27 TEN 35
- 6 DET 16 TEN 27
- 7 DET 17 TEN 31
- 8 DET 10 TEN 27
- 9 DET 16 TEN 38
- 10 DET 20 TEN 51
Your call
Did the Titans earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lions win 17% of them, Titans 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lions by 17+ | 1.6% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 4.9% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 9.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 23.9% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 23.5% |
| Titans by 17+ | 35.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- S. Gostkowski, 38 yds made · 90% expected
- M. Prater, 53 yds made · 64% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Lions 3 for 33 yards, Titans 3 for 22 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:50 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 23 yards | +3% TEN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | False Start on the Titans (Corey Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:33 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 13:33 | Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Desmond King), 12 yards | +1% DET +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:53 | False Start on the Titans (MyCole Pruitt), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DET +0.8 pts |
Lions penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:26 | The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +6% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:38 | The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +5% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 0:33 | The Lions converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +3% DET | DET: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 4:19 | The Lions fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% TEN | DET: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:29 | The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% TEN | TEN: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 9:29 | The Lions fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% TEN | DET: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 4:14 | M. Prater made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 16 of 26 from 45+ before | +5% DET | DET: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 2:46 | The Titans converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Breon Borders (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Jadeveon Clowney (TEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Kenny Vaccaro (TEN S), out · 0.5 pts
- Ty Sambrailo (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Geoff Swaim (TEN TE), out · 0.2 pts
- Frank Ragnow (DET OL), out · 0.8 pts
- Desmond Trufant (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Kenny Golladay (DET WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Trey Flowers (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Tyrell Crosby (DET OL), out · 0.4 pts
- Danny Shelton (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Darryl Roberts (DET CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Da'Shawn Hand (DET DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lions 0% · Titans 100%
- Final margin
- Titans by 21
- Luck in points
- 5.8 for the Titans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 15.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Lions 17% · Titans 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · 
Lions · 
Titans
More from Week 15 2020
- Chargers at Raiders LAC 30–27 · replay 32% for the winner
- Bills at Broncos BUF 48–19 · replay 95% for the winner
- Panthers at Packers GB 24–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 33–27 · replay 39% for the winner
- Texans at Colts IND 27–20 · replay 85% for the winner
- Jaguars at Ravens BAL 40–14 · replay 76% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 22–12 · replay 76% for the winner
- Seahawks at Washington SEA 20–15 · replay 90% for the winner
- 49ers at Cowboys DAL 41–33 · replay 16% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Falcons TB 31–27 · replay 76% for the winner
- Jets at Rams NYJ 23–20 · replay 19% for the winner
- Eagles at Cardinals ARI 33–26 · replay 85% for the winner
- Chiefs at Saints KC 32–29 · replay 68% for the winner
- Browns at Giants CLE 20–6 · replay 77% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals CIN 27–17 · replay 85% for the winner