luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2020 · December 20, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 15 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 31–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:28 left): Y. Koo made a 52-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Atlanta Falcons 27

December 20, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −6

Luck index +24 Buccaneers about even · −24 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Falcons win 2.

  1. 1 TB 37 ATL 7
  2. 2 TB 37 ATL 13
  3. 3 TB 38 ATL 20
  4. 4 TB 40 ATL 26
  5. 5 TB 31 ATL 20
  6. 6 TB 24 ATL 17
  7. 7 TB 30 ATL 26
  8. 8 TB 26 ATL 24
  9. 9 TB 20 ATL 24
  10. 10 TB 27 ATL 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 76% of them, Falcons 24%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+31.1%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.1%
Buccaneers by 1–824.8%
Level after regulation2.6%
Falcons by 1–811.9%
Falcons by 9–167.1%
Falcons by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 4, without the luck Buccaneers by 2.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 32 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • Y. Koo, 52 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 1 for 10 yards, Falcons 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q3 1:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 15 yards +8% TB +1.9 pts
Q3 0:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Edmond Robinson), 0 yards 0% TB 0.0 pts
Q4 4:54 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +6% ATL +0.9 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:49 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q2 9:41 The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q3 1:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 782 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +8% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:48 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q4 11:19 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% ATL TB: Field goal
6 Q4 9:09 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% TB ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 8:28 Y. Koo made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 16 of 17 from 45+ before +11% ATL ATL: Punt
8 Q4 5:34 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% TB ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Julio Jones (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Ricardo Allen (ATL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Darqueze Dennard (ATL DB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Donovan Smith (TB T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 79% · Falcons 21%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 4
Luck in points
1.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 76% · Falcons 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2020 games · Buccaneers · Falcons

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