2020 season · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2020: game by game
The Buccaneers went 11–5 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.
Playoffs: 4–0, replay wins 3.0.
Every game
How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Saints | L 23–34 | 59% | −59 |
| Week 2 | vs Panthers | W 31–17 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 3 | @ Broncos | W 28–10 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 4 | vs Chargers | W 38–31 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 5 | @ Bears | L 19–20 | 58% | −58 |
| Week 6 | vs Packers | W 38–10 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 7 | @ Raiders | W 45–20 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 8 | @ Giants | W 25–23 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 9 | vs Saints | L 3–38 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 10 | @ Panthers | W 46–23 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 11 | vs Rams | L 24–27 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 12 | vs Chiefs | L 24–27 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 14 | vs Vikings | W 26–14 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 15 | @ Falcons | W 31–27 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 16 | @ Lions | W 47–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 17 | vs Falcons | W 44–27 | 98% | +2 |
| Wild Card | @ Washington | W 31–23 | 90% | +10 |
| Divisional round | @ Saints | W 30–20 | 56% | +44 |
| NFC Championship | @ Packers | W 31–26 | 72% | +28 |
| Super Bowl | vs Chiefs | W 31–9 | 83% | +17 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +31.1 | +1.95 |
| Kicks | +6.4 | +0.40 |
| Injuries | +5.8 | +0.36 |
| Fumble bounces | +4.7 | +0.29 |
| Rest | −1.4 | −0.09 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −1.8 | −0.11 |