2020 season · final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2020: game by game
The Buccaneers went 11–5 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–3.
Playoffs: 4–0, replay wins 3.1.
Every game
How often the Buccaneers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Saints | L 23–34 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 2 | vs Panthers | W 31–17 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 3 | @ Broncos | W 28–10 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 4 | vs Chargers | W 38–31 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 5 | @ Bears | L 19–20 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 6 | vs Packers | W 38–10 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 7 | @ Raiders | W 45–20 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 8 | @ Giants | W 25–23 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 9 | vs Saints | L 3–38 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 10 | @ Panthers | W 46–23 | 66% | +34 |
| Week 11 | vs Rams | L 24–27 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 12 | vs Chiefs | L 24–27 | 49% | −49 |
| Week 14 | vs Vikings | W 26–14 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 15 | @ Falcons | W 31–27 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 16 | @ Lions | W 47–7 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 17 | vs Falcons | W 44–27 | 98% | +2 |
| Wild Card | @ Washington | W 31–23 | 91% | +9 |
| Divisional round | @ Saints | W 30–20 | 56% | +44 |
| NFC Championship | @ Packers | W 31–26 | 73% | +27 |
| Super Bowl | vs Chiefs | W 31–9 | 86% | +14 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Buccaneers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.23 | +14.2 |
| Kicks | +0.23 | +6.4 |
| Injuries | +0.08 | +4.3 |
| Rest | −0.04 | −1.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.07 | −3.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.14 | +6.8 |